Barclays analyst Jeffrey A. Bernstein has outlined top themes to watch out for in the U.S. restaurants in 2025.

The restaurant industry, according to the analyst, is experiencing mixed results as it navigates a volatile environment heading into the third quarter of 2024.

A recent preview highlighted that many companies have struggled to meet expectations regarding same-store sales and earnings per share, noted the analyst.

Despite these challenges, most have shared optimistic outlooks on recent sales trends.

As 2024 progresses, the key focus remains the consumer outlook, which has been unpredictable. On a positive note, unemployment rates remain near record lows, and wages continue to rise, contributing to a healthy increase in real disposable income, the analyst added.

Inflation has also eased, allowing the Federal Reserve to slow down its rate changes, said the analyst.

However, the analyst warned that the cost of living, including high rent and basic expenses, continues to pressure consumers.

Consumer confidence has remained lower than pre-pandemic levels, and many restaurants are working to improve traffic by offering greater value in response to inflation concerns.

Commodity inflation, excluding coffee, has shown signs of normalization and December 2024 saw a year-on-year increase of around 16%, mainly driven by coffee prices, asserted the analyst.

Restaurants are expecting mid-single-digit inflation in 2025, assuming current prices hold and the industry is hoping for a more stable cost environment that can support margins amidst uncertain sales projections, added the analyst.

The analyst expressed concern about labor costs and said while wage inflation has slowed from the peaks seen during 2021 and 2022, December 2024 saw a year-on-year wage increase of 10.3%.

In menu pricing, restaurants are easing the aggressive price hikes seen in recent years and overall, the industry is moving towards smaller price increases as commodity and labor inflation stabilizes, said the analyst.

The analyst upgraded both Shake Shack Inc (NYSE:SHAK) and Dutch Bros Inc (NYSE:BROS) to Overweight from Equal Weight.

The analyst downgraded Bloomin’ Brands Inc (NASDAQ:BLMN) and Dine Brands Global Inc (NYSE:DIN) to Equal Weight from Overweight.

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