Stock Market: Industrial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 16-month highs and remains relatively bullish

Stock Market: Industrial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose above 16-month highs and remains relatively bullish.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.78% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
0.94% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
1.16% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
5.06% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
0.36% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
2.19% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
1.94% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
2.26% , ITT , ITT INDS
1.13% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.70% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
1.29% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
4.69% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
4.72% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
1.27% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
2.03% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
0.67% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
2.88% , CEPH , Cephalon Inc
2.09% , BA , BOEING
3.07% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
1.09% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
1.17% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.97% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.98% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
1.17% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
2.26% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.53% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
2.74% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
1.86% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
2.57% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
2.91% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.23% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.58% , DSG , Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
1.56% , FLR , FLUOR
2.36% , EP , EL PASO
2.38% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
1.47% , TYC , TYCO INTL
2.47% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
1.73% , PIN , India PS, PIN
2.60% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
3.83% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.67% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-6.61% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-2.69% , EMC , EMC
-2.09% , F , FORD MOTOR
-3.02% , C , CITIGROUP
-1.88% , NOVL , NOVELL
-2.07% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
-0.16% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-2.40% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-2.16% , ZION , ZIONS
-0.61% , DLX , DELUXE
-1.80% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
-0.52% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
-0.45% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-0.68% , LM , LEGG MASON
-0.24% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
-0.49% , GAS , NICOR
-0.76% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-0.39% , TLAB , TELLABS
-2.00% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
-0.58% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-0.17% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY
-0.55% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.63% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-0.42% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
-0.14% , SEE , SEALED AIR
-0.51% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-0.37% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
-0.85% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-0.04% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
-0.28% , MCD , MCDONALDS
-0.03% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
-0.06% , PEP , PEPSICO
-0.05% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.00% , IGV , Software, IGV
-0.04% , GOOG , Google
-0.29% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
-0.44% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.04% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio rose above 4-year highs on 3/26/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY closed above 17-month closing price highs on 3/26/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.94, 31.66, 30.99, 29.90, 29.25, 28.66, 28.21 and 26.62. Resistance 33.76 and 34.50.

Industrial Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio rose above 16-month highs on 3/29/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLI moved above 17-month highs on 3/23/10 and remains bullish. Support 29.79, 29.60, and 28.15. Resistance 32.00 and 35.00.

Technology Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio rose above 6-week highs on 3/25/10 but remains stuck in the neutral zone with 50- below the 200-day simple moving average. Absolute price rose above 11-week highs on 3/25/10 and remains bullish. Support 22.52, 21.30, 20.71, 20.46 and 20.09. Resistance 23.38 and 23.83.

Materials Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio bounced moderately and is now neutral, between 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of XLB rose above 9-week highs on 3/23/10 and remains bullish. Support 32.85, 32.58, 30.79, 29.48, 28.95 and 28.67. Resistance 34.52 and 35.38.

Financial Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio rose above 4-month highs on 3/26/10. Although XLF/SPY is above both moving averages, the 50 remains below the 200, which is not bullish. Absolute price of XLF moved above 16-month highs on 3/24/10, and moving average analysis of XLF price remains bullish. Support 15.37, 15.12, 14.33, 13.95, 13.51 and 13.08. Resistance 16.53 and 17.87.

Consumer Staples Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio turned bearish on 3/9/10 when it fell below its 50-day simple moving average. XLP/SPY remains below its 200, and the 50 is below the 200 SMA. Absolute price of XLP moved above 17-month highs on 3/23/10 and remains bullish. Support 27.23, 26.82, 26.49, 26.04, 25.93 and 25.71. Resistance 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Health Care Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio fell sharply below 4-month lows on 3/26/10 but still remains neutral because the 50-day is above the 200-day simple moving average. Absolute price of XLV rose above 8-week highs on 3/22/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.46, 31.00, 30.27, 30.65 and 29.55. Resistance 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Energy Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio fell further below 17-month lows on 3/25/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLE rose slightly above its 50-day simple moving average on 3/29/10, suggesting a bullish price trend. Support 54.72, 52.67 and 51.34. Resistance 59.42, 59.90 and 60.87.

Utilities Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio fell further below 2-year lows on 3/25/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU fell below 3-week lows on 3/25/10, crossed back down below its 200-day simple moving average, and remains neutral. Support 28.45 and 28.10. Resistance 31.30, 31.64 and 32.08.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF Relative Strength Ratio remains bearish, but absolute price of EEM remains bullishly above 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. When relative strength and absolute price trends are in conflict, it may be best to stand aside.

Foreign Stocks ETF Relative Strength Ratio remains bearish. Absolute price of EFA remains bullishly above 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. When relative strength and absolute price trends are in conflict, it may be best to stand aside.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 3/10/10 and remains in bullish position above rising 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is above the 200. Absolute price of the NASDAQ rose above 17-month highs on 3/23/10 and is in bullish position relative to moving averages.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio fell to a 4-month low on 3/17/10. IWF/IWD has been below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages for most of the month, March 2010. In contrast, absolute price of IWF rose above 17-month highs on 3/23/10 and is bullish. When relative strength and absolute price trends are in conflict, it may be best to stand aside.

Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio rose above 5-month highs on 3/23/10 and is bullish. Absolute price of IWD rose above 17-month highs on 3/23/10 and is bullish.

The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio rose above previous 6-year highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of RSP rose above 18-month highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 20 months on 3/10/10. OEX/SPX remains bearish below its falling 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is below the 200. Conflicting with this bearish Relative Strength trend, absolute price of OEX remains bullish relative to its moving averages.

The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio rose above 17-month highs on 3/23/10. Absolute price of IWM rose further above 17-month highs on 3/23/10. Both remain in bullish position relative to key moving averages.

The Mid Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio rose above 15-year highs on 3/23/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of MDY rose above 17-month highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price has been in a choppy/sideways trading range most of the time since October 2009. Longer term, Oil remains in strong position above 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Support 78.86, 77.05, 76.71, 72.60, 69.50, 68.59 and 65.05. Resistance 83.95, 85.82 and 98.65.

Gold nearest futures contract price turned bullish by rising above its 50-day simple moving average on 3/29/10. Gold remains above its 200-day simple moving average, and the 50 remains above the 200. Support 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance 1145.8, 1163.0, 1170.2, 1196.8 and 1226.4.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF Relative Strength Ratio turned bearish on 3/24/10 by falling below 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages when the 50 was below the 200. Absolute price of GDX turned neutral on 3/24/10 and is hanging on by a slim margin. The gold mining stocks have underperformed gold bullion since 9/17/09.

Silver/Gold Ratio is neutral: above the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages but the 50 remains below the 200, which is not bullish. Mixed indications from the Silver/Gold Ratio still implies some uncertainty about prospects for the world economy.

Copper nearest futures contract price has been in a choppy/sideways trading range since 3/1/10. Watch critical support 3.29. Longer term, Copper has been in a strong trend since 12/08. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 3.29, 3.1505, 3.034, 2.811, 2.64 and 2.4575. Resistance 3.4665, 3.47, 3.544, 3.5625, 3.5625, and 3.79.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell sharply below 10-week lows on 3/25/10 and remains bearish. Support 114.16, 113.04 and 112.15. Resistance 118.12, 119.18, 120.11 and 123.18.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-week highs on 3/25/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of JNK also rose above 9-week highs on 3/29/10 and remains bullish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio turned slightly bullish on 3/25/10, when TIP/IEF rose above 50- and 200-day simple moving averages.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price rose further above its 10-month trading range on 3/25/10 and remains bullish. Support 80.775, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 83.145 and 83.335.

The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 48.9% Bulls versus 20.5% Bears as of 3/25/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 2.39, up from 2.16 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio is still well below its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.

VIX Fear Index fell to a 22-month low of 16.17 on 3/19/10. A low and falling VIX suggests bullish complacency. VIX is down from a closing high of 80.86 set on 11/20/08. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

VXN Fear Index fell to a 31-month low of 17.16 on 3/18/10. A low and falling VXN suggests bullish complacency. VXN is down from a closing high of 80.64 set on 11/20/08. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.

ISEE Call/Put Ratio has been consistently neutral in recent months: its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which is two standard deviations from the mean.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio fell to 0.43 on 3/9/10, a low level that indicates significant bullish sentiment, which might be taken as a caution sign. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which is two standard deviations from the mean.

The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 3/18/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 17 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.

S&P 500 Composite absolute price rose above 17-month highs on 3/23/10 and remains bullish. Support 1141.45, 1116.11, 1086.02, 1078.46, 1069.97, 1044.50, 1036.31 and 1029.54. Resistance 1220.03 and 1228.74.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1141.45, low of 3/15/2010
1116.11, high of 3/1/2010
1086.95, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1086.02, low of 2/25/2010
1078.46, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1069.97, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1044.50, low of 2/5/2010
1036.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-2010 range
1029.54, Gann 25.0% of 2009-2010 range
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
969.08, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
965.69, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
908.62, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
851.55, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

2.91% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
2.89% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.77% Russia MV, RSX
2.70% Brazil Index, EWZ
2.59% Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.56% Latin Am 40, ILF
2.26% Commodity Tracking, DBC
2.18% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
1.94% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.94% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.94% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.93% China 25 iS, FXI
1.93% South Korea Index, EWY
1.88% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.82% Energy DJ, IYE
1.82% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.80% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.78% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.75% Singapore Index, EWS
1.73% India PS, PIN
1.71% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.70% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.64% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.64% Australia Index, EWA
1.63% Mexico Index, EWW
1.42% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.36% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.33% South Africa Index, EZA
1.28% Austria Index, EWO
1.27% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.26% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.25% Japan Index, EWJ
1.24% Canada Index, EWC
1.23% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.22% Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.20% Dividend International, PID
1.19% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.18% Energy Global, IXC
1.17% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.16% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.16% Germany Index, EWG
1.13% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.09% France Index, EWQ
1.07% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.07% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.05% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.01% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.01% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.98% Water Resources, PHO
0.97% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.95% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.95% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.93% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.92% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.91% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.90% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.89% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.88% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.88% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.86% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.85% EAFE Index, EFA
0.84% European VIPERs, VGK
0.81% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.80% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.79% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.77% Belgium Index, EWK
0.73% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.70% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.70% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.70% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.69% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.67% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.67% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.65% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.65% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.65% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
0.65% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.63% Spain Index, EWP
0.63% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.62% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.60% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.60% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.59% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.58% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.56% Global 100, IOO
0.56% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.55% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.55% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.55% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.55% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.54% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.54% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.50% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.49% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.49% Italy Index, EWI
0.49% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.48% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.48% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.47% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.47% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.45% DIAMONDS , DIA
0.45% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.45% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.44% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.41% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.36% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.36% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.35% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.35% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.30% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.30% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.29% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.24% Networking, IGN
0.23% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.20% Sweden Index, EWD
0.17% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.17% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.15% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.15% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.13% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.12% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.12% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.08% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.08% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.08% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.07% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.05% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.05% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.02% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.05% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.09% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.12% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.13% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.15% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.38% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.55% Thailand MSCI iS, THD

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