Big Retailers Report

Good Morning Everyone!

Customers are setting banks on fire in Lebanon because they can’t get their money out.

Inflation is at +170%.

This is what a currency collapse looks like:

Prices as of 4 pm EST, 2/17/23; % YTD



  • 9:45: S&P Global Flash PMIs (Composite, Manufacturing, Services)

  • 10:00: Existing home sales

This week:

  • Tuesday: FOMC minutes

  • Thursday: Q4 GDP estimate, initial jobless claims

  • Friday: Personal income/spending, PCE, New home sales, Consumer sentiment

Leading Economic Indicator (LEI)

  • Conference Board's LEI fell 0.3% in January

  • -6% YoY…outside of Covid, close to biggest drop since Lehman (2008)

High-grade corporate bonds

  • IG corporate bonds have seen $19 billion inflows YTD

  • Investors seeking low risk…higher yields now attractive

  • Avg yields ~5.45% up from 3.1% a year ago

Q4 earnings update

  • 82% of S&P 500 has reported

  • 68% beat EPS estimates (below 5- and 10-year averages)

  • 65% beat sales estimates (below 5-year avg, above 10-year avg)

  • Blended earnings growth: -4.7%

  • Blended sales growth: 5.1%

Earnings outlook

  • Consensus forward EPS estimates have come down

  • But…still suggest growth ahead:

John Deere DE

  • Expects demand to stay strong

  • More than doubled quarterly income

  • Raised profit forecast

  • Farmers expected to plant more this year

  • CFO: "The supply chain is showing early signs of improvement but remains fragile"


  • Taking a page out of Elon's playbook

  • Launching paid verification subscriptions for Facebook, Instagram

    • $11.99 (web) vs. $14.99 (iOS) per month

  • Zuck: "This new feature is about increasing authenticity and security across our services"

HomeDepot HD

  • Beat EPS, missed revenue

  • Attributes miss to drop in lumber prices

  • Muted outlook for 2023

    • Flat sales expected

    • Mid-single digit decline in EPS

Walmart WMT

  • Double beat

  • Strong holiday quarter but cautious for 2023, beyond

  • Margins to compress on: lower prices, discounts, weak consumer sentiment, increase to employee wages

  • Outlook disappointed, below estimates


  • Walmart

  • Home Depot

  • Medtronic MDT

  • Teck Resources TECK

  • Fluor FLR

  • Crestwood Equity CEQP

  • Harmoy Biosciences HRMY

  • Hunstman HUN

  • Dana Incoporated DAN

  • Dillard's DDS

  • Lincoln Electric LECO

  • Middleby MIDD

  • Walker & Dunlop WD 

  • Donnelly Financial DFIN

  • Ingersoll-Rand IR


Blur overtakes OpenSea

  • Blur: upstart marketplace

  • Incentivizes traders to treat NFTs like DeFi tokens

  • +$460 worth of Ethereum NFT trades over past 7 days

    • Vs OpenSea $107 million

Digital asset fund flows

  • Despite crypto rally, outflows of $32 million last week

    • Largest since December

    • Bitcoin BTC/USD ~$25 million outflows

  • Short-Bitcoin $3.7 million inflows

  • Ethereum ETH/USD outflows of $7.2 million

  • Blockchain equities $9.6 million inflows

    • 6 straight weeks of inflows

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