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Articles by GRIT Capital

Score One For Crypto Enthusiasts

Score One For Crypto Enthusiasts

Recent economic data is encouraging but Citi’s Economic Surprise Index suggests that the trend could be changing:

Stocks Like Rising Yields, Wait What?

Stocks Like Rising Yields, Wait What?

Stakes couldn’t be higher for NVIDIA. Earnings expected to hit $2.07 (up +305% from $0.51 last year). It’s been the best performing stock in the S&P 500 this year, up +212%. If they miss the entire stock market could go down.

Reverse Clickbait

Reverse Clickbait

Over 86% of the S&P 500 year-to-date return has come from valuation expansion. The S&P 500 is now trading at 19x P/E (forward), the long-term average is 15.6 and at the end of 2022 it was below 17x. Can this continue?

Trouble Brewing In China

Trouble Brewing In China

Good Morning! Legendary investor Ray Dalio who has +$3B invested in Chinese businesses says the country is “overdue” for a debt shake-up. China has almost doubled its debt over the past 5 years. Debt-to-GDP is now at a record 281.5% 🙈

US Oil Inventories Drop By Most On Record

US Oil Inventories Drop By Most On Record

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman is making a bold move! He's shorting 30-year Treasury bills using options, and he predicts yields could skyrocket to 5.5% 'soon'. His strategy is a hedge against the impact of long-term rates on stocks in “a world with persistent 3% inflation.”

Q2 GDP: Choo Choo

Q2 GDP: Choo Choo

The FED might be winning the war on inflation. Their preferred metric for inflation the PCE Inflation Index surprised below expectations at 4.1%. PCE inflation is now at the lowest reading since 2021. The trend is finally our friend!

We'll Do It Live

We'll Do It Live

Hold onto your coffee cups, 'cause we're kicking off the day with GREAT news! GDP soars to 2.4% in Q2 2023. This is up from 2% in Q1. The “for sure recession" is nowhere in sight - it vanished like a magician's trick!

Earnings Reactions Are Upside-down

Earnings Reactions Are Upside-down

Inflation was out of control, interest rates soared, bonds screamed caution and a recession seemed imminent. Yet, here we are, 20 months later with the S&P 500's bear market nearing a full recovery, just 260 points short. Talk about market resilience!

Bad Breadth Is Masking Opportunities

Bad Breadth Is Masking Opportunities

Back from vacation and diving into a big week. The S&P 500 is just over 5% away from hitting its all-time high, FED's poised for a rate hike, second quarter GDP and big tech earnings are rolling in. Coffee in hand? Let's conquer this week together!

The Retail Army Is VERY Bullish

The Retail Army Is VERY Bullish

Do with this information as you see fit: Jim Cramer said this week he doesn’t see a recession in the cards for the US…

Institutional Vs. Retail Investors: Who Ya Got?

Institutional Vs. Retail Investors: Who Ya Got?

Are we inching closer to the elusive “soft landing”? An increasing share of global fund managers sees it as the most likely outcome over the next 12 months:

What The Nasdaq-100 Will Look Like After July 24

What The Nasdaq-100 Will Look Like After July 24

Economists expect this morning’s retail sales data to show the strongest growth since January. If a recession is coming, somebody forgot to tell the consumer!

Economists Push Out Recession Forecasts... Again

Economists Push Out Recession Forecasts... Again

Last quarter's earnings day moves were 3.6x the average daily move. Will we see more of the same this season?

The Rally Is Broadening

The Rally Is Broadening

June CPI inflation came in below expectations at 3.0% versus estimates of 3.1% and down from 4.0% in May. The core index came in below 5% which is great news. I think the FED still raises rates in July but it could be the last hike this year!

Wall Street's Biggest Bull Gets More Bullish

Wall Street's Biggest Bull Gets More Bullish

Market veteran Ed Yardeni says the U.S. economy has shifted from a “rolling recession” to a “rolling recovery”. He says large parts of the residential real-estate sector had been in a recession for eight quarters. But a sharp rise of 12% in new home sales (among other sectors) in May marked the start of the recovery.

Short Week, Big Data

Short Week, Big Data

I hope you all enjoyed a relaxing Independence Day and Canada Day long weekend. Despite everything the stock market has been unbelievably resilient. The NASDAQ posted its strongest first 6 months of the year since the early 1980s. What do we think the next 6 months hold?

Strong Economy Gives Fed Ammo To Hike

Strong Economy Gives Fed Ammo To Hike

Especially Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) which is on the cusp of making history by becoming a $3 trillion market cap company. Apple hit $3 trillion in early 2022, but didn't manage to close there. The stock is up 51% year-to-date. Will Apple keep soaring to new heights?

Is A VIX Floor Approaching?

Is A VIX Floor Approaching?

The housing market is resilient. Sales of newly constructed homes were up 12.2% in May from April, and up 20% from a year ago. Homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates don’t want to sell and buy another home at a much higher rate according to Bloomberg. Will this continue?

Positioning Is Becoming Less Bullish

Positioning Is Becoming Less Bullish

SEC approves first ever leveraged Bitcoin Futures ETF. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is up 83% in the past 6 months. Is it going higher?

EM To Overtake US Market By 2030

EM To Overtake US Market By 2030

It’s been an amazing first half of the year for the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ 100 index is on track for best first half to a year ever. Can the run continue?