Originally published at volumeleaders.substack.com

Weekly Wrap-Up

During the week of July 29 through August 2, 2024, the U.S. financial markets faced a tumultuous period marked by significant volatility and mixed economic signals. Major indices, including the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq, experienced notable declines, driven by concerns over an economic slowdown and disappointing corporate earnings.

The week began with a focus on corporate earnings, with several high-profile companies releasing their quarterly results. Meta Platforms, Amazon, and Intel were among the notable names. Meta reported better-than-expected earnings, driven by strong ad revenue growth and continued expansion in its virtual reality segment. However, Amazon's results were disappointing, with the company missing revenue estimates and providing a weaker-than-expected outlook. This sent Amazon's stock tumbling, contributing to broader market declines. Intel also faced a challenging week, as the company announced significant job cuts and provided a gloomy outlook, leading to a sharp drop in its stock price.

Geopolitical tensions further exacerbated market jitters, particularly the assassination of a prominent Hamas leader, which heightened concerns about stability in the Middle East. This geopolitical development led to a rush into safe-haven assets, with U.S. Treasury yields falling significantly. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped to its lowest level since December 2023, reflecting investor anxiety and a flight to safety.

Economic data released during the week added to the market's concerns. The U.S. jobs report for July showed a significant slowdown in job creation, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by just 114,000, well below expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level in over a year, indicating a potential softening in the labor market. The report also showed a modest increase in hourly earnings, suggesting limited wage pressures. These data points led to increased speculation about a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as markets began to price in a greater likelihood of monetary easing to support the economy.

In the context of market volatility, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the "fear gauge," spiked to levels not seen since early 2023. This surge in volatility underscored the heightened uncertainty among investors, as they grappled with mixed economic data and corporate earnings. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was particularly hard hit, officially entering correction territory, having declined 10% from its recent highs.

Adding to the market's complexity, the Sahm Rule, a recession indicator, was triggered. The Sahm Rule suggests that a recession is likely when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more relative to its low over the previous 12 months. With the unemployment rate increasing to 4.3%, this indicator raised further concerns about the possibility of an economic downturn, reinforcing the cautious stance among investors.

This Week’s Snapshots

Volatility

ETFs

Crypto

Forex

US Investor Sentiment

%Bull-Bear Spread

Coming in at 19.69%, compared to 11.44% last week and 20.79% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 6.66%.

NAAIM Exposure Index

SPX Put/Call Ratio

CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio

CNN Fear & Greed Index

Institutional S/R Levels For Major Indices

Levels from the VolumeLeaders.com platform can help you formulate trades theses about:

• Where to add or take profit
• Where to de-risk or hedge
• What strikes to target for options
• Where to expect support or resistance

SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY)

Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ)

IShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM)

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA)

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Top Institutional Order Flow

Top Aggregate Dollars Transacted By Ticker

Largest Individual Trades By Dollars Transacted

Top Aggregate Dark Pool Activity By Ticker

Largest Individual Dark Pool Blocks By Dollars

Top Aggregate Sweeps By Ticker

Top Individual Sweeps By Dollars Transacted

Institutional S/R Levels For Individual Tickers

Please read “Institutional S/R Levels For Major Indices” at the top of this stack to understand the nature and importance of what we’re looking at here visually. Institutions leave footprints that VL can illustrate for you while providing context to assess things like institutional conviction and urgency.

Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) reported its third-quarter earnings, which were a key highlight for the company. The semiconductor giant exceeded analyst expectations, posting adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.33, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.24. Revenue for the quarter was also strong, coming in at $9.4 billion, slightly ahead of projections.

Higher timeframe traders will note where we are on a daily chart - back into a prior area of demand and with significant volume coming in. I’m looking for a low to be struck at $153’ish, giving this make-or-break-zone a quick look below before a reclaim that would invite strength to see $210 again. In the absence of buyers at $153, good chance $140’ish is on-deck and that’s a good place to re-asses.

Additionally, Marvell was highlighted by J.P. Morgan as a preferred chip stock, especially as part of the AI infrastructure boom. Despite these positive notes, the stock faced fluctuations, reflecting broader market volatility and investor reactions to the company's recent financial performance and forward guidance, finishing the week with a gap down.

Microchip announced that its first-quarter revenue was $1.161 billion, representing a 12% decline year-over-year. The company's earnings per share (EPS) also fell, reflecting the broader market challenges faced by the semiconductor industry. Despite these setbacks, Microchip raised its quarterly dividend by 10.7%, signaling confidence in its long-term prospects.

Analyst sentiment around Microchip was cautious, with some analysts lowering their forecasts due to the company's weaker-than-expected outlook for the next quarter.

Nasdaq, Inc. (NASDAQ:NDAQ)

Warner Music Group Corp. (NASDAQ:WMG)

WMG experienced volatility, influenced by both corporate decisions and broader market dynamics. A key highlight was the announcement of Max Lousada stepping down as CEO of the recorded music division at the end of the fiscal year. Lousada has been a significant figure at Warner Music Group, contributing to its success over the past two decades.

The company also announced a reorganization of its recorded music operations, aiming to streamline leadership and enhance creative regional leadership. This restructuring is part of Warner Music's strategy to adapt to the evolving music industry landscape, focusing on local music markets and digital streaming platforms.

Financially, Warner Music Group has shown resilience with steady revenue growth, despite challenges. For the fiscal second quarter, the company reported strong results driven by growth in subscription streaming and music publishing. However, the stock's performance was mixed, reflecting investor reactions to the executive changes and the overall market sentiment.

Overall, Warner Music Group is navigating a transformative phase, balancing strategic leadership changes with efforts to capitalize on digital and global music trends​.

If you’re wondering when it’s going to be safe to get back into this pool (or any ticker you’re looking at), just zoom out to a higher timeframe in VL and identify where institutions are positioned:

Global X Uranium ETF (NYSE:URA)

Like so many tickers we’re looking at across the board, this one also into a large demand zone on higher timeframes. Here are some lower timeframe references from this past week but pull up the dailies on everything you’re doing homework on this weekend and see for yourself.

Best Buy Co. (NYSE:BBY)

Best Buy has been focusing on strengthening its position in the consumer electronics retail sector, a move that has been positively received by analysts. The company's earnings per share (EPS) stood at $1.14, indicating a better-than-industry performance. However, the overall market sentiment and concerns about consumer spending trends have influenced the stock's recent movements.

Institutionally-Backed Gainers & Losers

If you’re going to bet on a horse, consider one that is officially endorsed by an institution! These are the top percent gainers (green) and and percent losers (red) from this week’s open-to-close that had a trade price greater than $20 and institutional involvement. Continue watching tickers from prior stacks as these frequently turn into multi-leg trades with a lot of movement!

Top Institutionally Backed Gainers

Top Institutionally Backed Losers

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Billionaire Boys Club

Tickers that printed a trade worth at least $1B last week get a special shout-out. Welcome to the club. The table below is sortable, searchable and paginated (if there are enough results; some weeks are busier than others). Login to VL to get the exact trade price and relevant institutional levels around the trade.

Summary Of Thematic Performance YTD

VL provides a lot of pre-built filters for thematics so that you can quickly dive into specific areas of the market. These performance overviews are provided here only for inspiration. Consider targeting leaders and/or laggards in the best and worst sectors, for example.

S&P By Sector

S&P By Industry

Energy

Metals

Agriculture

Country ETFs

Yields

Factors: Size vs Value

Factors: Style

Events On Deck This Week

Here are key events happening this week that have the potential to cause outsized moves in the market or heightened short-term volatility.

Econ

Earnings

A Final Word

This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.