KeyBanc Capital Markets analysts presented proprietary credit/debit card spending trends across Consumer/Retail and Internet Retail sectors.

Consumer/Retail: Analyst Bradley Thomas said this week’s data through December 24th shows indexed spending for the 'All Retail' category increasing 18.4% y/y. 

For the first three weeks of December (excluding the most recent week), average indexed spending rose 0.4% y/y, slightly decelerating vs. 1.3% increase for November. 

Excluding the most recent week, Broadlines/Hardlines indexed spend average increase was 8.8% for the first three weeks of December vs. 4.6% in November, writes the analyst. 

Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE:BBY), DLTR, Tractor Supply Co (NASDAQ:TSCO), and Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT) saw a positive acceleration.

The analyst expects easier comparisons in 2024 but projects hardlines trends to be impacted by an unwinding of pandemic-related spending patterns (in home-related areas) and weakness in discretionary categories such as macroeconomic uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and restrictive financial conditions.

Looking ahead, the analyst projects a risk of slower discretionary spending trends due to the resumption of student loan repayments. 

Internet Retail: Analyst Ashley Owens says that the movement remains mixed for the week ending December 24th but sees positive accelerations due to the inclusion of an additional weekend shopping day before Christmas relative to last year. 

Also, Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) experienced positive indexed spend trends of +21% y/y (vs. +6.2% y/y last week)

Photo via Walmart