TLT Reverses 3-Month Upside Trend
(via COMTEX News Network)--
- Technical Market Commentary -
July 11, 2011 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar) -- The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) reversed its 3-month trend to the upside on June 24, and it may still have more downside ahead.
TLT hit correction lows on June 30 and have since traded sideways. Typically, however, corrections run in at least three waves. So, based on wave analysis (and with only one down wave in place), there should still be a lower low ahead.
There is a rising trend support line on the daily chart that connects the correction lows reached on February 10 and then again on April 11. Extend that line to the right and it crosses below current dates at around $92.50.
While the 92.50 support level could result in a new rally or a tradable bounce over coming weeks, a decisive close below $92.50 is likely to result in considerable downside movement for TLT.
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Frank Kollar has been timing the financial markets since 1982, with online service since 1996. He is a dedicated trend timer and his strategies exited the markets before the crash in 1987 as well as the bear market in 2000 through 2002. During the 2000-2002 bear market and the 2008-2009 bear market his bearish positions resulted in substantial gains, all achieved by trading trends.
Kollar's research has shown that the financial markets are in tradable trends approximately 80 percent of the time. FibTimer strategies define trends and trade them in both advancing and declining markets. Kollar is editor and chief analyst at FibTimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) which offers market timing strategies for S&P and Nasdaq index fund traders, as well as bond, gold, small cap, sector, ETF and stock trading strategies.
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