It's Month End. What's Priced In?

Good Morning Everyone!

Remember, as bad as things may seem, history is on our side. The average midterm year – like this one – is typically down as of October 5. It finishes, however, up 6% on average.

Prices as of 4 pm EST, 8/30/22; % YTD



  • S&P 500  -3.5%

  • NASDQ  -4.1%  down 6% since Jackson Hole

  • TSX   -0.9%

Post Jackson Hole, we are starting to get fresh 52-week lows - As of yesterday’s close:

  • Anheuser-Busch BUD

  • Comcast CMCSA

  • Intel INTC

  • 3M MMM

  • Verizon VZ

  • Newmont NEM

What’s priced in for the September 21 FOMC meeting?

  • Today                    Federal Funds Target Rate 2.25%-2.5%

  • 70% chance        75 basis points hike on September 21

  • 30% chance        50 basis point hike on September 21

  • 75- point hike    Takes Fed Funds Target Rate to 3-3.25%

  • 50-point hike     Takes Fed Funds Taret Rate to 2.75%-3%

Bigger picture of what is priced in for the Fed Funds Rate

  • By year end        3.5%-3.75%

  • By early 2023      3.75%-4%

  • 2nd half 2023       2 rate cuts to 3.25%-3.5%

All of these expectations will change as we get fresh new data

2-year Treasury

Crude    89.50     -2%

  • Oil is headed for a 3rd monthly drop

  • The longest losing run in more than 2 years

3-day halt of the Nord Stream pipeline started Wednesday

  • Germany & France said they are prepared for further supply disruptions thanks to gas-storage refills

Toyota TM / World’s biggest automaker

  • Will invest $5.6 billion to boost electric car battery production

  • Battery production expected to begin in 2024


  • Netflix NFLX is hiring 2 top execs from SNAP to work on ad-supported service

  • SNAP plans to lay off 20% of its employees


  • CrowdStrike CRWD  flat

  • HP HPQ -7%, miss and guides lower, demand for PCs and Print weak

  • Hewlett Packard HPE +1%      

  • Chewy CHWY -10%, cutting guidance


Seven Seven Six to launch $177 million crypto fund

  • VC firm led by Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian

  • Kryptós will debut October

  • “It’s on sale. Everything is on sale.” - founding partner Katelin Holloway

Animoca raises another $100 million

  • Asian blockchain gaming giant

  • Now valued at $6 billion

  • Over 340 portfolio companies (incl The Sandbox and Decentraland)

Crypto Fear & Greed


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