Tom Brady is returning to the National Football League for a 23rd season. Brady's return is one of several big offseason announcements for the NFL that is shifting betting odds for the Super Bowl, NFC Conference and NFL MVP.
What Happened: Brady announced his retirement from the National Football League in February.
“I have loved my NFL career, and now it is time to focus my time and energy on other things that require my attention,” Brady said at the time.
Many thought Brady would venture further into crypto and non-fungible tokens through his partnerships and investments with FTX and Autograph. Brady also announced plans to produce and appear in a movie from Paramount Global PARAPARAA.
Ultimately, the football field was calling to Brady and he couldn’t hang up his cleats yet.
“These past two months I’ve realized my place is still on the field and not in the stands,” Brady tweeted. That time will come. But it’s not now. I’m coming back for my 23rd season in Tampa. Unfinished business.”
Related Link: 5 Things You Might Not Know About Tom Brady
Sports Betting Market Impacted: Prior to Brady’s official retirement announcement in February, sportsbooks were eager to get the odds out for Super Bowl LVII. Without a clear decision, many sportsbooks placed the odds at 50/50 and priced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers accordingly.
Prior to Brady's original retirement announcement, the Buccaneers were listed with odds of +1400 in the initial Super Bowl LVII odds at Caesars Entertainment Inc CZR and at odds of +1200 with Draftkings Inc DKNG.
After Brady’s retirement and several other moves by NFL teams including the Denver Broncos trading for Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers re-signing with the Packers, the Buccaneers had fallen to odds of +2500 to +2800 across many of the sportsbooks.
On Monday, sportsbooks have all adjusted their odds for Super Bowl LVII, the NFC Conference, the NFC South division and NFL MVP race. Some sportsbooks had pulled several NFL Futures offerings Sunday night as Brady’s unretirement news was digested.
Super Bowl LVII Odds: Here is a look at how the sportsbooks have adjusted the Super Bowl futures betting.
- DraftKings: Bills +700, Buccaneers +750, Chiefs +800, Packers +800
- FanDuel, owned by Flutter Entertainment PDYPY: Bills +700, Buccaneers +750, Packers +750, Chiefs +850
- PointsBet: Buccaneers +700, Bills +750, Chiefs +750, Packers +800
- BetMGM, owned by Entain and MGM Resorts International MGM: Bills +700, Chiefs +750, Buccaneers +850, Packers +1000
- Barstool Sportsbook from Penn National Gaming, Inc PENN: Bills +750, Buccaneers +800, Packers +800, Chiefs +850
- Caesars: Bills +750, Chiefs +800, Buccaneers +1000, Packers +1100
NFL MVP Odds: Here is a look at how NFL MVP betting has changed since Brady’s announcement.
- DraftKings: Josh Allen +700, Patrick Mahomes +750, Rodgers +800, Brady +800
- FanDuel: Allen +600, Mahomes +600, Rodgers +800, Brady +850
- PointsBet: Allen +700, Mahomes +700, Brady +800, Rodgers +800
- BetMGM: Allen +700, Mahomes +700, Rodgers +700, Brady +900
- Barstool: Allen +500, Brady +500, Mahomes +600, Rodgers +600
- Caesars: Mahomes +700, Rodgers +800, Allen +900, Brady +900
Last season, Rodgers won the NFL MVP for the second straight season. Rodgers finished with 39 votes beating Brady who came in second with 10 votes.
Brady won the NFL MVP for 2007, 2010 and 2017 seasons.
Other Bets: At sportsbooks, the Buccaneers are heavily favored to win the NFC South division with odds in the -200 to -280 range, making the team the most likely to win its division.
The Buccaneers are also the favorite or co-favorite with the Packers at all sportsbooks to win the NFC Conference and appear in Super Bowl LVII with odds ranging from +300 to +375.
NFC Conference Odds: Here is a look at how sportsbooks have adjusted the NFC Conference race.
PointsBet is also offering two early player props on Brady. The sportsbook has an over/under on Brady’s passing yards set at 4,549.5 for the 2022 season. The over pays out at odds of -125.
PointsBet also has odds of Brady’s touchdowns for the 2022 NFL season set at an over/under of 35.5 with the over paying out at odds of -134.
Brady finished the 2021 season with 5,316 yards and 43 touchdowns. In his first season (2020) with the Buccaneers, Brady had 4,633 yards and 40 touchdowns.
The over on both props has been covered for both of Brady’s seasons with the Buccaneers.
Sportsbooks will need to adjust their odds throughout the 2022 NFL season. Brady returns as the second-best quarterback against the spread with a 186-124-6 record of covering in regular-season NFL games. Brady’s 58.9% covering percent ranks second to only Joe Montana, who was 101-63 against the spread (61.6%) among quarterbacks with 100 regular season starts.
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