Stock Market Today: Dow Jones, Nasdaq Futures Tumble Ahead Of Big Bank Earnings—Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup In Focus (UPDATED)

Editor’s Note: The future prices of benchmark tracking ETFs, the lede, and the latest economic releases were updated in the story.

U.S. stock futures declined on Tuesday following Monday’s reversal rally. Futures of major benchmark indices were lower.

Based on the latest NFIB report, small business optimism fell in September for the first time in three months, dropping 2.0 points to 98.8. The decline was largely driven by a sharp drop in owners’ expectations of better business conditions in the coming months. Compounding the issue, the Uncertainty Index surged 7 points to 100, the fourth-highest reading in over 51 years, as concerns over inflation, labor quality, and taxes continue to weigh on business owners.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the ongoing government shutdown has started to affect the real economy and accused the mainstream media of “downplaying the shutdown” to “avoid embarrassing Democrats,” further exacerbating the public’s understanding of the situation’s severity.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.01% and the two-year bond was at 3.47%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool’s projections show markets pricing a 97.8% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting the current interest rates in its October meeting.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, fell in premarket on Tuesday. The SPY was down 0.83% at $657.56 while the QQQ declined 1.09% to $595.45, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Stocks In Focus

Goldman Sachs Group

• Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) fell 0.61%, ahead of its earnings before the opening bell. Analysts estimate earnings of $11.00 per share on revenue of $14.10 billion.

• GS maintained a stronger price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, with a moderate quality ranking, as per Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings. Additional performance details are available here.

JPMorgan Chase

• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) was up 0.50% as analysts estimate earnings of $4.84 per share on revenue of $45.39 billion before the opening bell.

• Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that JPM had a stronger price trend in the short, medium, and long terms, with a good growth ranking. Additional performance details are available here.

Johnson & Johnson

• Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) was 0.23% lower ahead of its earnings before the opening bell. Analysts estimate earnings of $2.75 per share on revenue of $23.74 billion.

• JNJ maintained a stronger price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, with a poor value ranking. Additional performance details, as per Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings, are available here.

Citigroup

• Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) was 0.44% higher as analysts estimate earnings of $1.90 per share on revenue of $21.09 billion before the opening bell.

• Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that Citigroup maintains a stronger price trend over the medium and long terms but a weak trend in the short term, with a moderate growth ranking. Additional performance details are available here.

Polaris

• Polaris Inc. (NYSE:PII) shares climbed 10.98% as it entered into a definitive agreement to sell a majority stake in Indian Motorcycle to an independent private equity firm, Carolwood LP.

• PII maintained a stronger price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, with a poor value ranking. Additional performance details, as per Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings, are available here.

Cues From Last Session

Information technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services stocks recorded the biggest gains on Monday, leading most sectors on the S&P 500 to a positive close.

However, consumer staples and health care stocks bucked the overall market trend, closing the session lower. This rally saw U.S. stocks settle higher, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining more than 2% as President Donald Trump softened his tone on China, reversing Friday's sell-off and reigniting risk appetite.

Insights From Analysts

According to Professor Jeremy Siegel, President Trump’s recent threat to impose 100% tariffs on China, which roiled markets, may be the “last salvo before a final deal is worked out”. In his weekly commentary, Siegel argues that the delayed Nov. 1 effective date is unusual and “indicates that Trump is fishing for a final deal, using the tariff as a bargaining chip”.

While strong and steady AI capital spending continues to anchor economic growth, Siegel warns that a prolonged government shutdown poses a significant risk. The uncertainty could filter into hiring intentions and nudge consumers into a “self-imposed ‘strike'” that slows spending.

On monetary policy, Siegel expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates at its upcoming meeting, as market pricing has “moved decisively toward easing”. He believes the policy rate should eventually “migrate toward the mid-3s” over the cycle. Despite near-term volatility, Siegel's long-term view remains that equities are the “primary engine of wealth creation”.

However, he adds that as a hedge, owning some "store-of-value" exposure can make sense. “I'd size gold or a mix of gold and major crypto around the low single digits and cap near 10% for most investors, recognizing that over long horizons equities, the primary engine of wealth creation should remain stocks for the long run,” he said.

See Also: How to Trade Futures

Upcoming Economic Data

Here's what investors will be keeping an eye on Tuesday;

• In September, small business optimism declined by 2.0 points, while owner uncertainty surged to its fourth-highest level in over 51 years. 

• Fed governor Michelle Bowman will speak at 8:45 a.m., Fed governor Christopher Waller will speak at 3:25 p.m., and Boston Fed President Susan Collins will speak at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Commodities, Gold, Crypto, And Global Equity Markets

Crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session by 2.19% to hover around $58.19 per barrel.

Gold Spot US Dollar rose 0.71% to hover around $4,140.04 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $4,179.71 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.10% higher at the 99.3640 level.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was trading 2.68% lower at $112,018.35 per coin.

Asian markets closed lower on Tuesday, except Australia's ASX 200 index. South Korea's Kospi, India’s NIFTY 50, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, China’s CSI 300, and Japan's Nikkei 225 fell. European markets were mixed in early trade.

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