Quad Witching Driving AI Stocks Including Nvidia Higher, More One Month Lows Than Highs In NASDAQ

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Deteriorating Internals

Please click here for an enlarged chart of Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ).

Note the following:

Housing

Housing data is weaker than expected. Here are the details:

  • Housing starts came at 1.277M vs. 1.385M consensus.
  • Building permits came at 1.386M vs. 1.455M consensus.

England

The Bank of England (BoE) has decided to hold rates steady. The vote was seven to two. BoE is showing a dovish tilt.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) and NVDA.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

Note for new investors: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Gold

The momo crowd is buying gold in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV). 

Oil

The momo crowd is buying oil in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:USO).

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is range bound. The post holiday buying is being met with selling in bitcoin.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

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