Bracing For A Bumpy Ride: Analyst Eyes Weak Q1 Results For RH

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  • Telsey Advisory Group analyst Cristina Fernández reiterated a Market Perform rating on the shares of RH RH with a price target of $225.
  • RH is reporting 1Q earnings after the markets close on Thursday, May 25
  • The analyst expects softened consumer discretionary spending in categories like home furnishings and home improvement to weigh on the quarterly results.
  • The analyst notes that retailers' results in 1Q23 and retail sales data from the U.S. government confirm the weak trend.
  • Near-term uncertainties loom large on the stock, as the company has been pessimistic about the housing market on recent calls, citing a weak demand environment.
  • For the quarter to be reported, the analyst sees a sales decline of 24% to $727.5 million. EPS is expected to be $2.06. 
  • The analyst sees an operating margin contraction of 1,100 bps to 13.7%, with a gross margin contraction of 600 bps Y/Y to 47.1%.
  • In the first quarter, the company may see sales deleverage and investments in advertising related to new products as it opens new stores.
  • Overall, at this point in the year, RH is pointing toward the low-to-mid-end of its existing guidance range.
  • On the positive side, the brand remains healthy, and RH has new product introductions this year and the opening of its first international store, RH England, in June.
  • Further out, RH plans to open nine more international stores in 2024-2025 and smaller format stores in the U.S.
  • Price Action: RH shares are down by 0.36% to $255.76 on the last check Tuesday.
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