Calculate whether your options trade has positive or negative expectancy over 100 trades. Enter max loss, max profit, and probability of each outcome to see your expected result.
Trade risk & reward
Enter the fixed max loss and max profit for a single trade.
Maximum loss if the trade hits max risk.
Maximum profit if the trade hits max gain.
Probability of max outcomes
Enter each outcome as a percentage (numbers only — e.g. 25 for 25%).
Chance of hitting max loss on the trade.
Chance of hitting max profit on the trade.
Expected outcome (100 trades)
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Enter all four inputs to see whether your trade has positive or negative expectancy.
Max loss after 100 trades
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Max profit after 100 trades
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How the math works
Weighted profit = max profit × prob. ITM profit (%). Weighted loss = max loss × prob. ITM loss (%). Expected outcome = weighted profit − weighted loss. Works only for strategies with fixed max risk and max gain.
The 100x Options Calculator helps you determine if your option trade has positive or negative expectancy. It looks at four inputs: max risk on the trade, the probability of hitting max risk, max profit on the trade, and the probability of hitting max profit.
Enter the percentage for hitting your max loss and max gain as numbers only (e.g. 30 for 30%), plus the max loss and max gain in dollars for a single trade. The calculator shows weighted outcomes after 100 trades and whether the setup favors you over time.
This will not work on strategies that do not have a fixed max risk or fixed max gain — such as naked short options or positions with undefined upside or downside.
Once you know a setup has positive expectancy, model exact profit and loss at expiration with live options data.