A packed week ahead with Fed Chair Jerome Powell and FOMC set for Wednesday, GDP numbers pre-market on Thursday and PCE data on Friday, in addition to companies such as $MSFT MSFT, $GOOGL GOOGL and $META META reporting earnings. Will these events act as a catalyst for a pullback or will the train continue to chug along? My thoughts...
We'll start off this week's newsletter by looking at S&P Futures on a weekly time frame. Last week, price reached into a bearish imbalance that formed back in January of 2022, before pulling back and closing below that level. A decent amount of support has formed, but a pullback this week would not shock me one bit with big tech earnings and FOMC. I'm looking for a retracement back to around 4450 before what I think can be another run into the end of the year.
Last week NQ filled a bearish imbalance above before pulling back hard. I'd like to see a pullback in tech over the next few weeks down to 15210, about 340 points lower. Like ES, I think that pullback would set up another move higher to close out the year.
A strong week from DXY last week plays into my thesis on the indices pulling back as well. I think DXY will make a move into the 50-79% of the range to fill some of those imbalances above. DXY had been dead for sometime so a bounce would make sense to me.
$SPY SPY Just a pullback doing that pullback thing. Thinking market can see 442.47 before the next run...
$AAPL AAPL 191.69 swept and held. Looking for a small bounce towards 192.52 before a move lower. Thinking we see (at least) 189.46 this week...
$TSLA TSLA Bounce from support and rejected my resistance level. Possible retracement towards 265 but 250.30 is my downside target. IF there's a move higher, things will change for me over 267.46, which was Friday's swing high.
$GOOGL Earnings Tuesday AH... Not looking so hot but earnings... flip a coin
$AMD AMD Not looking so hot under 113.37... Over 112.50 could bring some noise but I'm anticipating lower here
$MARA MARA Probably my last week following MARA closely... Not expecting much unless BTC cooperates. Fade to 15.30 completes 2 SD to the downside.
Set the range and rejected the imbalance near 50% of the range before moving lower, taking liquidity, and bouncing. Like many other names, AMZN doesn't look great to me unless we see a move above Friday's swing high.
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