US Stocks Likely To Open Lower After Moody's Downgrade: 'Bear Market Isn't Fully Recovered Yet, But It Is Close,' Says Expert

U.S. stock futures dipped on Monday after closing higher for the day and the week on Friday. Futures of major benchmark indices were trading lower in premarket.

The S&P 500 index recorded its fifth day of gains on Friday after turning positive for the year at the beginning of the previous week.

However, Moody’s Ratings downgraded the United States’ long-term credit rating, from Aaa to Aa1 and shifted its outlook from “negative” to “stable.”

This decision means the U.S. has now lost its top-tier “triple-A” rating from all three major credit agencies, following similar downgrades by Fitch and S&P Global.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.54% and the two-year bond was at 4.00%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 91.7% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rates unchanged in its June meeting.

Futures	Change (+/-)
Dow Jones	-0.92%
S&P 500	-1.32%
Nasdaq 100	-1.74%
Russell 2000	-1.72%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ, which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, fell in premarket on Monday. The SPY was down 1.21% to $587.00, while the QQQ declined 1.63% to $513.00, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From Last Session:

Fueled by tech giants like Nvidia Corp. NVDA and Meta Platforms Inc. META, the Nasdaq Composite led the charge with a robust 7.2% gain last week, contributing to a broad market rally.

U.S. stocks finished higher on Friday, marking the S&P 500’s fifth consecutive session of gains and a 5.3% weekly increase. The Dow also added 3.4% for the week.

While most S&P 500 sectors closed positively on Friday, with healthcare, utilities, and real estate leading, energy stocks declined.

Economic data revealed a dip in U.S. consumer sentiment but a slight increase in both import and export prices for April. Apple also saw a ~6% gain last week.

Index	Performance (+/-)	Value
Nasdaq Composite	0.52%	19,211.10
S&P 500	0.70%	5,958.38
Dow Jones	0.78%	42,654.74
Russell 2000	0.89%	2,113.25

Insights From Analysts:

Ryan Detrick from Carson Research highlighted in an X post that the “bear market isn’t fully recovered yet, but it is close.”

According to the data shared by him, the bear markets between November 1980 to August 1982 and March 2000 to October 2002 staged the quickest recoveries, within three months.

“Should it happen soon, this will be the quickest recovery ever from a bear or near bear market.”

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Meanwhile, CNBC's Jim Cramer recalled that "the market dropped 6.7% after the last downgrade back in 2011, but it, ultimately, meant nothing." Despite weeks of market decline following that event, Cramer emphasized investors "had to stay the course."

Dan Niles, founder of Niles Investment Management, expects less severe market reactions this time. "Prior debt downgrades have been followed by S&P drops of 8-10%," Niles noted, adding that "today, tariff rollbacks is driving a pickup in the economy & the decline should be less."

Niles believes current conditions differ significantly. "Unlike in 2023 or 2011, the economic environment is improving around this debt downgrade," he wrote, citing reduced China tariffs driving trade resumption.

See Also: How to Trade Futures

Upcoming Economic Data

Here’s what investors will keep an eye on this week:

On Monday, New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak at 8:45 a.m. ET.
April’s U.S. leading economic indicators will be out by 10:00 a.m. ET.
On Tuesday, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will speak at 9:00 a.m., Boston Fed President Susan Collins will participate in the ‘Fed Listens’ event at 9:30 a.m., St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak at 1:00 p.m., and Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler will speak at 5:00 p.m. ET.
On Wednesday, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will take part in the ‘Fed Listens’ event at 12:15 p.m. ET.
On Thursday, initial jobless claims data for the week ending May 17 will be out by 8:30 a.m. ET.
The S&P flash U.S. services and manufacturing PMI for May will be released by 9:45 a.m. ET.
April’s existing home sales will be announced by 10:00 a.m. ET.
New York Fed President John Williams will speak at 2:00 p.m. ET.
On Friday, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will speak at 9:35 a.m., new home sales data for April will be out by 10:00 a.m., and Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will speak at 12:00 p.m. ET.
On Sunday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver his commencement address at 2:40 p.m. ET.

Stocks In Focus:

Trip.com Group Ltd. TCOM rose 1.11% in premarket on Monday as analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of 86 cents per share on revenue of $1.91 billion, after the closing bell.
ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. ZIM dropped 1.31% as Wall Street expects it to report earnings before the opening bell. It is expected to post earnings of $1.87 per share on revenue of $1.85 billion.
Global Ship Lease Inc. GSL was up 0.36% as analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of $2.31 per share on revenue of $175.23 million, before the opening bell.
Paychex Inc. PAYX was 0.62% lower after disclosing that its founder, Thomas Golisano, will step down from the company’s Board of Directors, effective after the board's July meeting.
Interactive Strength Inc. TRNR jumped 15.40% after CEO Trent Ward and Sportstech CEO Ali Ahmad provided insights ahead of their first quarter earnings report, highlighting the early integration progress of TRNR’s pending acquisition of Sportstech and Wattbike.
Novavax Inc. NVAX jumped 15% after the FDA gave its conditional approval to its COVID-19 vaccine, targeting specific populations under particular conditions.
Bit Origin Ltd. BTOG dropped 13.27% after announcing the date for its hearing to consider confirming the company’s proposed share capital reduction, which was approved by special resolution on March 14, 2025.

Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets:

Crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session by 0.53% to hover around $61.63 per barrel.

Gold Spot US Dollar rose 1.30% to hover around $3,243.83 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $3,500.33 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was lower by 0.80% at the 100.2840 level.

Asian markets ended lower on Monday as South Korea's Kospi, Australia's ASX 200, Japan's Nikkei 225, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, India's S&P BSE Sensex, and China’s CSI 300 indices declined. European markets were also lower in early trade.

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