Stock Market: selection based on relative strength is working.

Stock Market: selection based on relative strength is working.

Consumer Discretionary Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose above 4-year highs while absolute price of XLY closed above 17-month closing price highs. Both remain bullish.

Industrial Stock Sector absolute price moved above 17-month highs and remains bullish.

Financial Stock Sector absolute price moved above 17-month highs and remains bullish.

Technology Stock Sector absolute price moved up to a new 19-month high and remains bullish.

Materials Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio fell below 2-week lows and fell below its 200-day simple moving averages. XLB/SPY remains neutral.

Consumer Staples Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio broke down below 3-month lows and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLP stalled since its high on 4/5/10 but remains bullish.

Utilities Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio fell further below 2-year lows and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU has been neutral most of the time since the peak on 12/14/09.

The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/13/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs while absolute price of the NASDAQ closed above 18-month highs. Both remain bullish.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index absolute price rose further above 17-month highs and remains bullish.

The S&P MidCap 400 absolute price rose above 17-month highs and remains bullish.

Advance-Decline Lines for the NYSE, NASDAQ, and ASE confirmed new highs.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.71% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
7.64% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
2.92% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
0.54% , PMR , Retail, PMR
3.69% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
3.29% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
4.10% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
2.59% , SNV , SYNOVUS
2.57% , HD , HOME DEPOT
3.06% , YHOO , YAHOO
1.96% , FO , FORTUNE BRANDS
2.42% , LOW , LOWES
3.70% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
2.56% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
3.28% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
2.01% , LM , LEGG MASON
2.27% , IYR , Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.23% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
2.45% , GOOG , Google
1.25% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
2.12% , FAST , Fastenal Company
1.58% , KBH , KB HOME
1.02% , INTC , INTEL
1.05% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
2.86% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
2.00% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
1.56% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
0.76% , CSX , CSX
1.22% , RTN , RAYTHEON
1.26% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
1.05% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
1.37% , SYY , SYSCO
0.66% , OMC , OMNICOM
2.48% , HSP , HOSPIRA
0.28% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2.42% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
1.09% , UNP , UNION PACIFIC
0.40% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.50% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
1.05% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-7.97% , AVP , AVON
-28.00% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
-5.64% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
-5.93% , MBI , MBIA
-1.96% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-2.40% , KEY , KEYCORP
-1.53% , SPLS , STAPLES
-2.19% , TBH , Telebras HOLDRS, TBH
-2.62% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
-1.95% , CI , CIGNA
-0.66% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-1.41% , DHR , DANAHER
-1.27% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-6.41% , FRE , FREDDIE MAC
-1.15% , CVG , CONVERGYS
-2.33% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
-0.98% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
-1.66% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
-1.58% , AA , ALCOA
-1.45% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-4.84% , FNM , FANNIE MAE
-0.58% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-1.09% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
-1.81% , MON , MONSANTO
-1.08% , BJS , BJ SERVICES
-1.59% , BBT , BB&T
-0.41% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
-2.45% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-1.21% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
-0.87% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-1.75% , ETFC.O , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-1.03% , OIH , Oil Services H, OIH
-0.69% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-0.80% , SYK , STRYKER
-1.89% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-0.88% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-0.81% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
-2.53% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
-1.11% , PCG , PG&E
-0.62% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio rose above 4-year highs on 4/13/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY closed above 17-month closing price highs on 4/13/10 and remains bullish. Support 33.15, 31.94, 31.66, 30.99, 29.90, 29.25, 28.66, 28.21 and 26.62. Resistance 34.50 and 35.14.

Industrial Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio rose above 16-month highs on 3/30/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLI moved above 17-month highs on 4/13/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.27, 29.79, 29.60, and 28.15. Resistance 32.00, 32.40, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.

Financial Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio rose above 6-month highs on 4/8/10. Although XLF/SPY is above both moving averages, the 50 remains below the 200, which is not bullish. Absolute price of XLF moved above 17-month highs on 4/13/10 and remains bullish. Support 16.22, 15.52, 15.37, and 15.12. Resistance 16.77, 17.16, and 17.87.

Technology Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio turned bearish on 4/1/10 when it broke down below 4-week lows and broke down below 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price moved up to a new 19-month high on 4/13/10 and remains bullish. Support 23.07, 22.90, 22.66, 22.52, 21.30, 20.71, 20.46 and 20.09. Resistance 23.83 and 24.68.

Materials Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio fell below 2-week lows and fell below its 200-day simple moving averages on 4/13/10. XLB/SPY remains neutral. Absolute price of XLB stalled since its high on 4/7/10 but remains bullish. Support 33.40, 32.85, and 32.58. Resistance 35.38 and 37.10.

Consumer Staples Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio broke down below 3-month lows on 4/13/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLP stalled since its high on 4/5/10 but remains bullish. Support 27.76, 27.23, 26.82, 26.49, 26.04, 25.93 and 25.71. Resistance 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Health Care Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio fell below 5-month lows on 4/12/10 but still remains technically neutral because the 50-day is still above the 200-day simple moving average. Absolute price of XLV fell below 4-week lows on 4/8/10 but still remains bullish relative to 50- and 200-day averages. Support 31.83, 31.46, 31.00, 30.27, 30.65 and 29.55. Resistance 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Energy Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio fell below 17-month lows on 3/25/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLE broke out above 3-month highs on 4/12/10. The price trend is bullish. Support 58.27, 54.72, 52.67 and 51.34. Resistance 60.87 and 62.73.

Utilities Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio fell further below 2-year lows on 4/13/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU has been neutral most of the time since the peak on 12/14/09. Support 29.30, 28.45, and 28.10. Resistance 31.30, 31.64 and 32.08.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF Relative Strength Ratio rose above its highs of the previous 10 weeks on 4/5/10. EEM/SPY is now above 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, but the 50 remains below the 200, which is not favorable. Absolute price of EEM rose above its highs of the previous 20 months on 4/9/10 and remains bullish.

Foreign Stocks ETF Relative Strength Ratio rose above its highs of the previous 7 weeks on 4/1/10 but is only neutral, with the 50- below the 200-day simple moving average. Absolute price of EFA rose above its highs of the previous 10 weeks on 4/12/10 and remains bullish.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 4/13/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of the NASDAQ closed above 18-month highs on 4/13/10 and remains bullish.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio fell to a 5-month low on 4/12/10. IWF/IWD remains below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. In contrast, absolute price of IWF rose above 18-month highs on 4/13/10 and remains bullish. When relative strength and absolute price trends are in conflict, it may be best to stand aside.

Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio rose above 6-month highs on 4/12/10 and is bullish. Absolute price of IWD rose above 17-month highs on 4/12/10 and is bullish.

The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio rose above previous 6-year highs on 4/5/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of RSP rose above 18-month highs on 4/12/10 and remains bullish.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 21 months on 4/6/10. OEX/SPX remains bearish below its falling 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is below the 200. Conflicting with this bearish Relative Strength trend, absolute price of OEX remains bullish relative to its moving averages.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio rose above 17-month highs on 4/7/10. Absolute price of IWM rose further above 17-month highs on 4/13/10. Both remain in bullish position relative to key moving averages.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio rose above 15-year highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of MDY rose above 17-month highs on 4/13/10 and remains bullish.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price broke out above previous 18-month highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish. Support 78.86, 77.05, 76.71, 72.60, 69.50, 68.59 and 65.05. Resistance 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract rose above 4-month highs on 4/12/10, confirming the beginning of another upwave in a major bull market. Support 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance 1163.0, 1170.2, 1196.8 and 1226.4.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF Relative Strength Ratio has turned neutral for the intermediate-term trend after stabilizing since making a low on 1/29/10. Longer term, the trend appears unfavorable, since gold mining stocks have underperformed gold bullion since 9/17/09.

Silver/Gold Ratio has partially recovered since making a low on 2/8/10 and has improved from bearish to neutral.

Copper nearest futures contract price rose to a new 20-month high on 4/5/10. Copper has been in a strong trend since 12/08. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 3.29, 3.1505, 3.034, and 2.811. Resistance 3.795 and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell sharply below 10-month lows on 4/5/10 and remains bearish. Support 113.04 and 112.15. Resistance 118.12, 119.18, 120.11 and 123.18.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio rose above 10-week highs on 4/9/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of JNK also rose above 10-week highs on 3/30/10 and remains bullish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio turned bullish on 3/25/10, when TIP/IEF rose above 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. This means investors now prefer a bit more inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP rose above its 50-day simple moving average on 4/12/10 and also is bullish.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price appears to have entered a correction since peaking at 82.52 on 3/25/10. Minor corrections are normal. USD rose above its 10-month trading range on 3/25/10, which was a significant signal for the longer term trend. USD remains bullish. Support 80.775, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 82.52, 83.145 and 83.335.

The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 48.9% Bulls versus 18.9% Bears as of 4/7/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 2.59, up from 2.53 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio is still below its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.

VIX Fear Index fell to a 33-month low of 15.23 on 4/12/10. A low and falling VIX suggests bullish complacency. VIX is down from a closing high of 80.86 set on 11/20/08. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

VXN Fear Index fell to a 31-month low of 15.84 on 4/12/10. A low and falling VXN suggests bullish complacency. VXN is down from a closing high of 80.64 set on 11/20/08. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.

ISEE Call/Put Ratio has been consistently neutral in recent months: its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which is two standard deviations from the mean.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio fell to 0.40 on 4/12/10, a low level that indicates significant bullish sentiment, which might be taken as a caution sign. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which represent two standard deviations from the mean.

The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/13/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.

S&P 500 Composite absolute price rose above 18-month highs on 4/12/10, again confirming its bullish trend. Support 1175.12, 1141.45, 1116.11, 1086.02, 1078.46, 1069.97, 1044.50, 1036.31 and 1029.54. Resistance 1220.03 and 1228.74.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1175.12, low of 4/9/2010
1141.45, low of 3/15/2010
1116.11, high of 3/1/2010
1086.95, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1086.02, low of 2/25/2010
1078.46, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1069.97, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1044.50, low of 2/5/2010
1036.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-2010 range
1029.54, Gann 25.0% of 2009-2010 range
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
969.08, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
965.69, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
908.62, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
851.55, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

2.64% REIT Wilshire, RWR
2.56% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
2.45% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
2.27% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.94% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
0.87% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.81% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.57% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.53% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.51% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.47% Russia MV, RSX
0.47% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.45% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.40% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.38% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.38% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.37% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.37% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.37% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.36% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.36% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.34% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.32% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.31% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.30% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.29% Sweden Index, EWD
0.29% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.28% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.28% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.27% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.27% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.26% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.26% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.26% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.26% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.24% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.24% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.24% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.23% Water Resources, PHO
0.23% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.23% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.22% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.22% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.19% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.19% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.19% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.18% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.18% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.17% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.17% Networking, IGN
0.16% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.16% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.16% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.16% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.14% Dividend International, PID
0.13% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.12% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.12% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.11% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.11% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.10% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.10% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.09% Spain Index, EWP
0.09% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.09% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.09% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.09% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.08% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.08% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.07% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.06% DIAMONDS , DIA
0.06% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.06% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.05% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.05% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.05% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.04% Germany Index, EWG
0.04% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.02% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.00% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.00% Singapore Index, EWS
0.00% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.00% Italy Index, EWI
-0.02% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.05% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.05% Global 100, IOO
-0.05% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.06% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.06% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.06% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.07% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.08% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.09% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.09% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.10% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.12% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.12% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.15% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.15% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.15% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.16% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.19% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.19% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.20% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.20% Australia Index, EWA
-0.21% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.22% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.24% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.24% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.26% India PS, PIN
-0.26% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.27% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.28% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.29% Energy Global, IXC
-0.32% Canada Index, EWC
-0.32% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.32% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.34% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.35% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.36% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.37% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.39% France Index, EWQ
-0.42% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.44% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.44% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.47% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.47% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.52% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.53% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.54% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.60% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.62% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.66% Austria Index, EWO
-0.73% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.83% Malaysia Index, EWM

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »