Largest U.S. Jobs-Lies Yet

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics deserves credit for being audacious, if nothing else. On the same day that it admitted that its “birth/death model” had understated U.S. job losses by more than 100,000 jobs per month throughout 2009, it started off 2010 with its largest one-month jobs-lie yet – since it severed all connection with reality in its “statistics”.

Let's take these bombshells one at a time. Once a year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics does a revision of its jobs numbers, by comparing actual jobs totals from tax receipts against their own “estimates”, which include the “birth/death” adjustment. For those unfamiliar with this statistical manipulation, the BLS's “birth/death model” is a completely discredited tool which supposedly counts all the jobs which are “invisible” to the U.S. government's massive army of statisticians. No other government engages in these flawed adjustments.

Conveniently, what this supposedly unbiased “model” always does is to understate job creation when the economy is strong, and understate job losses when the economy is weak. Put more bluntly, this is a statistical contrivance where the U.S. government 'borrows' jobs from the good months to add to the bad months. Of course, with the debt-crippled U.S. economy no longer having any “good months”, it's only function now is to add phantom “jobs”.

During 2009 alone, the BLS has just admitted that the “birth/death model” incorrectly added more than 1.39 million jobs last year. Put another way, these supposed “margins of error” were much larger than the birth/death adjustments, themselves. Statistically, any model which produces margins of error which are larger than the results of the model is obviously hopelessly flawed. A valid economic model should have margins of error which are generally no larger than 5- 10% of the results. Thus, the refusal of the BLS to abandon this statistical fraud is just as outrageous as the birth/death lies, themselves – especially when there is a distinct and obvious pattern to these lies.

Did I mention the second, large annual adjustment which the BLS makes with its birth/death model every year? Every January, the BLS also makes a subtraction of hundreds of thousands of additional jobs. This “adjustment” is for the bias in the model which the BLS admits to, in advance each year – with a second revision then done after the fact.

This January, the BLS subtracted 427,000 jobs via the birth/death model – a fact that it is desperately hoping that no one noticed. The reason why it is so important that no one notice this revision, is because the BLS's January jobs report is its largest one-month lie yet. Given that the final figure released by the BLS was a net job-loss of only 20,000 jobs, without the birth/death adjustment, we are supposed to believe that the crippled U.S. economy created over 400,000 net jobs in January.