Thanksgiving 2025 Travel Forecast: Nearly 82 Million Americans Set To Hit Roads And Skies— Where Are They Headed?

After days of uncertainty over possible flight disruptions, the holiday getaway is shaping up to be the busiest on record.

Nearly 82 million Americans are expected to travel over Thanksgiving, according to a new forecast from the American Automobile Association (AAA), now that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has cleared airlines to resume normal operations, and millions prepare to hit the roads and skies.

A Record Thanksgiving, Driven In Part By Flyers

Overall, AAA projects 81.83 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles between Tuesday, Nov. 25, and Monday, Dec. 1 — the highest volume ever recorded for Thanksgiving. That surpasses last year's record of 80.22 million travelers and sits more than 4 million above 2019, before the pandemic reshaped travel patterns.

“People are willing to brave the crowds and make last-minute adjustments to their plans to make lifelong memories…” said Stacey Barber, Vice President of AAA Travel.

Air travel is also a major reason this year’s numbers are climbing. AAA expects 6 million people to fly over the holiday period, a figure that has hovered between five and six million for the past several years, but now sits near the top of that range. And, while this year’s flyer count is only slightly higher than in 2024, it represents a 15% increase from 2019, outpacing the rebound in road travel of 4% for the same period.

That momentum has held even as airfares remain historically high and airlines continue to face operational pressure. Flyers are paying an average of $700 for a domestic round trip, similar to last year, yet demand shows little sign of softening. Instead, many passengers are adjusting their itineraries — flying earlier in the week, mixing remote work into travel plans, or shifting return dates — to dodge the most expensive days and keep holiday budgets in check.

Last week, Bank of America Securities (BofA) analysts said that while the federal government shutdown created short-term operational noise for U.S. airlines, such as American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) and United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL), Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:DAL) and others, the impact is largely a one-off external shock rather than a sign of weakening travel demand.

Roads Still Dominate

Still, about 73 million people, or nearly 90% of travelers, are expected to hit the road, 1.3 million more than last year. Hertz anticipates Wednesday, Nov. 26, will be the busiest car rental day, with demand strongest in Orlando, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Newark. Average rental rates are, however, 15% cheaper than last Thanksgiving.

Another 2.5 million people are taking buses, trains, or cruises — an 8.5% jump from last year, driven by surging interest in holiday cruises as the sector continues its post-pandemic rebound.

Where Americans Are Headed

Florida dominates domestic flight bookings, with Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, and Tampa among the top destinations. Other major U.S. hotspots include New York, San Francisco, Honolulu, and Las Vegas.

Internationally, travelers are heading to Europe, the Caribbean, and Australia, with Paris, Amsterdam, Vienna, Cancun, and Punta Cana leading AAA's list. Warm weather, holiday markets, and family-friendly packages are driving the trend.

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