Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman reiterated the Outperform rating on Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT), lowering the price forecast from $145 to $130.
Target will report its first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, May 21. Analyst Feldman lowered first-quarter and full-year 2025 estimates for Target, citing weaker consumer spending, particularly in discretionary and general merchandise, along with rising costs tied to promotions, labor, tech investments, and potential tariff impacts.
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Feldman now projects total sales to fall 0.9% to $24.3 billion, with comparable sales to decline 1.5%, down from the prior forecast of 1.0% and below the FactSet consensus of a 1.2% drop.
Feldman noted that Target sources roughly 50% of its cost of goods sold from within the U.S., while reducing its reliance on China from about 60% in 2017 to about 30% in 2024, with plans to bring that below 25% by 2026. Although the company hasn’t quantified the tariff impact, it plans to mitigate risks through sourcing diversification, vendor negotiations, and price increases while preserving balance sheet flexibility.
Reflecting softer consumer demand, a weaker product mix, and added cost pressures, especially tariffs, Feldman lowered his 2025 EPS estimate to $8.80 from $9.30 (vs. FactSet’s $8.62) and 2026 EPS to $9.55 from $10.14 (vs. FactSet’s $9.20).
Price Action: TGT shares are trading higher by 1.68% to $98.62 at last check on Friday.
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