Elon Musk’s SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) had roughly 444 acres near Starbase removed from Brownsville’s jurisdiction as the Texas city weighed restrictions on new data centers, a maneuver SemiAnalysis says helps explain why hundreds of local moratoriums have barely dented the U.S. AI buildout.
Brownsville commissioners approved the de-annexation on Aug. 29, putting the 444-acre site outside the city’s zoning authority three days before they voted to begin a 90-day moratorium process. At the same meeting, SpaceX agreed to provide up to $220 million for regional water infrastructure.
SemiAnalysis says SpaceX plans a data center there, although SpaceX has not publicly confirmed the property’s use.
77 Projects Become Just Three
SemiAnalysis, an AI and semiconductor research firm, mapped more than 300 enacted local moratoriums and bans against its U.S. data-center pipeline.
Researchers initially identified 77 campuses, representing roughly 20 gigawatts, inside jurisdictions with data-center restrictions. After checking each project against the local rules, SemiAnalysis found that only three were actually being delayed.
Those three projects total 1,525 megawatts of delayed capacity and include an Amazon campus in Ohio. Adding New York’s statewide executive action lifts SemiAnalysis’s estimate of delayed capacity to about 2.3 GW.
SemiAnalysis says most restrictions never translate into actual delays. A moratorium may not cover the specific site, may expire before the developer needs approval or may arrive after key permits are already in hand. Developers can also qualify for exemptions, redesign projects or move them elsewhere.
SemiAnalysis forecasts roughly 38 GW of U.S. data-center capacity coming online in 2027, more than double 2026, with 22 GW already under construction.
Power Moves off the Grid
The firm says the restrictions could accelerate “behind-the-meter” development, where data centers generate electricity onsite instead of relying entirely on the grid. It tracks 75 GW of firm equipment orders for such projects, with more of that capacity headed to Texas than any other state.
That could benefit GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE:GEV) and Bloom Energy Corp. (NYSE:BE), which are already seeing strong demand tied to AI power needs. GE Vernova’s gas-power backlog and slot reservations rose from 100 GW to 116 GW in the second quarter, and the company expects at least 125 GW by year-end.
Bloom reported second-quarter revenue of $1.07 billion, up 166% year over year, and said all major U.S. hyperscalers have approved its onsite power systems for their AI infrastructure.
A live Polymarket contract gives a 46% chance that a U.S. state enacts a statewide data-center moratorium by year-end, with about $16,400 wagered. New York’s existing moratorium does not count because it was imposed by executive order, while the market requires a state law.
For now, SemiAnalysis expects developers to keep relocating projects, redesigning them or bringing their own power rather than abandoning the buildout. The firm said a broad statewide restriction that also covered off-grid projects, particularly in a major market such as Texas, could materially change its buildout forecast.
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