Good Morning Everyone!
Remember, the S&P has gained on every FED Day since tightening began:
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3/16: +2.24%
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5/4: +2.99%
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6/15: +1.46%
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7/27: +2.62%
Will the trend continue today?
Prices as of 4 pm EST, 9/20/22; % YTD
MARKET UPDATE
Powell expected to raise rates 75 basis points today, 5th consecutive time
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In 8 out of past 10 decisions, S&P 500 goes up on the day of a Fed decision
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Long-only and Retail Investors are already very defensive anticipating 2023 negative estimate revisions
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Just to name a few of companies that have already cut guidance: Ford F, FedEx FDX, GE GE, Dow DOW, GM GM, Nucor NUE
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Hedge fund exposures are at 5-year lows
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Markets are pricing in a terminal rate of 4% to 4.5%
10yr 3.5% new highs
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2 p.m. Fed decision
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2:30 p.m. press conference
US$ 110.5 new 1-year highs
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U.S. dollar is a safety trade on news Putin has stepped up his war against Ukraine
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Putin called for a partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists and issued veiled threats
Crude 85 +1%
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10:30 a.m. Department of Energy inventory report
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Senator Mancin’s Energy Infrastructure permitting bill will be unveiled today.
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The Bill may need the support of as many as 20 Senate Republicans.
Earnings
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General Mills GIS
CRYPTO UPDATE
Voyager Digital update
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Bankrupt lender’s assets for sale
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FTX and Binance top bids - $50 million each
Robinhood HOOD lists USDC
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First stablecoin on platform
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USDC = 2nd largest stablecoin behind Tether (USDT)
Altcoin season is over
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Over past month 69% of altcoins outperformed Bitcoin BTC/USD
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Above 75% = Altcoin season
MEME OF THE DAY
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