Bracing For Powell's 5th Consecutive Raise

Good Morning Everyone!

Remember, the S&P has gained on every FED Day since tightening began:

  • 3/16: +2.24%

  • 5/4: +2.99%

  • 6/15: +1.46%

  • 7/27: +2.62%

Will the trend continue today?


Prices as of 4 pm EST, 9/20/22; % YTD


MARKET UPDATE

Powell expected to raise rates 75 basis points today, 5th consecutive time

  • In 8 out of past 10 decisions, S&P 500 goes up on the day of a Fed decision

  • Long-only and Retail Investors are already very defensive anticipating 2023 negative estimate revisions

    • Just to name a few of companies that have already cut guidance: Ford F, FedEx FDX, GE GE, Dow DOW, GM GM, Nucor NUE

  • Hedge fund exposures are at 5-year lows

  • Markets are pricing in a terminal rate of 4% to 4.5%

10yr 3.5% new highs

  • 2 p.m. Fed decision

  • 2:30 p.m. press conference

US$ 110.5 new 1-year highs

  • U.S. dollar is a safety trade on news Putin has stepped up his war against Ukraine

  • Putin called for a partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists and issued veiled threats

Crude 85 +1%

  • 10:30 a.m. Department of Energy inventory report

  • Senator Mancin’s Energy Infrastructure permitting bill will be unveiled today.

  • The Bill may need the support of as many as 20 Senate Republicans.

Earnings

  • General Mills GIS

CRYPTO UPDATE

Voyager Digital update

  • Bankrupt lender’s assets for sale

  • FTX and Binance top bids - $50 million each

Robinhood HOOD lists USDC

  • First stablecoin on platform

  • USDC = 2nd largest stablecoin behind Tether (USDT)

Altcoin season is over

  • Over past month 69% of altcoins outperformed Bitcoin BTC/USD

  • Above 75% = Altcoin season


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