Bracing For Powell's 5th Consecutive Raise

Good Morning Everyone!

Remember, the S&P has gained on every FED Day since tightening began:

• 3/16: +2.24%

• 5/4: +2.99%

• 6/15: +1.46%

• 7/27: +2.62%

Will the trend continue today?

Prices as of 4 pm EST, 9/20/22; % YTD

MARKET UPDATE

Powell expected to raise rates 75 basis points today, 5th consecutive time

• In 8 out of past 10 decisions, S&P 500 goes up on the day of a Fed decision

• Long-only and Retail Investors are already very defensive anticipating 2023 negative estimate revisions

  • Just to name a few of companies that have already cut guidance: Ford F, FedEx FDX, GE GE, Dow DOW, GM GM, Nucor NUE

• Hedge fund exposures are at 5-year lows

• Markets are pricing in a terminal rate of 4% to 4.5%

10yr 3.5% new highs

• 2 p.m. Fed decision

• 2:30 p.m. press conference

US$ 110.5 new 1-year highs

• U.S. dollar is a safety trade on news Putin has stepped up his war against Ukraine

• Putin called for a partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists and issued veiled threats

Crude 85 +1%

• 10:30 a.m. Department of Energy inventory report

• Senator Mancin’s Energy Infrastructure permitting bill will be unveiled today.

• The Bill may need the support of as many as 20 Senate Republicans.

Earnings

• General Mills GIS

CRYPTO UPDATE

Voyager Digital update

• Bankrupt lender’s assets for sale

• FTX and Binance top bids - $50 million each

Robinhood HOOD lists USDC

• First stablecoin on platform

• USDC = 2nd largest stablecoin behind Tether (USDT)

Altcoin season is over

• Over past month 69% of altcoins outperformed Bitcoin BTC/USD

• Above 75% = Altcoin season

MEME OF THE DAY