Gene Munster’s Deepwater Asset Management tasted success with its 2023 predictions. Now, it’s out with tech predictions for 2024.
A Record To Cherish: Out of the eight predictions that Deepwater made for 2023, seven came to pass. This gives the venture capital firm a success core of 87.5%.
The Munster co-founded firm was wrong about the timeline for Tesla, Inc.’s TSLA Model 2, which is now referred to as robotaxi. As opposed to its previous estimate of 2024, the firm now sees a delay until 2025.
Among those that fructified was the outperformance of the FAANG — the moniker for a group of mega-cap tech stocks.
Deepwater also called for:
- Apple, Inc.’s AAPL headset launch in late 2023
- private-equity companies taking tech companies private
- Unicorns going bankrupt
- And Ford Motor Co.’s F Lightning EV pickup truck outselling Tesla’s Cybertruck.
The firm also expected the year-end fed funds rate at 5.50% and the market rebounding in 2023.
See Also: Best Artificial Intelligence Stocks
Here’s what Deepwater predicts for 2024 based on its crystal ball gazing and scientific predictions:
- Growth Stocks Vs. Broader Market: The Winner Is… The iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF IWO will outperform the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY. Sub-$20 billion tech companies are poised to outperform large-cap companies.
- Time Ripe For Pursuing Acquisitions: Large technology platform companies such as CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. CRWD, Palo Alto Networks, Inc. PANW and Datadog, Inc. DDOG will likely be in acquisitive mode in the coming year as they continue to add point solutions to their platforms.
- Apple To Dip Heels Into AI Pool: Deepwater expects Apple to bring generative AI to Siri, with an announcement regarding this likely to be made at the WWDC 2024. Also, the tech giant is unlikely to announce any additional devices in the Vision product line and will merely sell 400,000-500,000 units of Vision Pro in 2024.
- EV Market Growth To Slow Further: Deepwater expects EV delivery growth to slow down from 40% in 2023 to 25% in 2024, while it sees growth reaccelerating in 2025. Tesla will likely maintain market share in the U.S. in 2024 due to traditional automakers slowing EV investments.
- M&A: The firm expects Apple to make a play for Peloton Interactive, Inc. PTON. Peloton’s “loyal subscriber base of about 3 million users” will add about $1.7 billion to Apple's subscription revenue, and fits well into the company’s health and wellness segment.
- Also, a company with a large-language model will likely acquire Reddit, Deepwater predicts.
- IPO Market Rebound In The Cards: The number of IPOs will increase from 153 in 2023 to 200 in 2024, bring it on par with the 2019 levels.
- Gaming Crown: Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. TTWO will likely be the best-performing U.S. gaming stock in 2024 due to the anticipation of GTA VI.
- AI To Muddle Election: Munster expects AI to negatively impact the 2024 presidential election, as “intentionally misleading content will be released to interfere with the election (e.g., deepfakes).”
The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund XLK edged up 0.04% to $192,93, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Image by nvodicka from Pixabay
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