Pfizer's COVID-19 Franchise Could Push Revenue Past $100B In 2022: Analyst


Pfizer, Inc. PFE found huge success with its COVID-19 franchise that includes Comirnaty, the COVID-19 vaccine it co-developed with BioNTech SE BNTX, and its yet-to-be authorized oral COVID-19 pill Paxlovid.

The Pfizer Analyst: SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges reiterated a Market Perform rating on Pfizer shares and increased the price target from $48 to $52.

The Pfizer Thesis: Pfizer's top line will exceed $100 billion in 2022 compared to $82 billion this year thanks to incremental revenue contributions from Comirnaty and Paxlovid, Porges said in a note.

Paxlovid revenue is likely to come in at $95 million in 2021, rising to $24 billion in 2022 and $33 billion in 2023, the analyst said.

Purchases of Paxlovid will be large, with Pfizer having already bagged a $5.3-billion contract from the U.S., Porges said. Revenues from the antiviral will be profitable, he added.

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Universal boosting and pediatric recommendations, the analyst said, should boost COVID-19 vaccine revenue. The analyst estimates $59 billion in 2021 COVID vaccine sales and $48 billion in 2022 globally.

"By the end of 2022, we expect $107bn in cumulative sales from over 13bn doses of Comirnaty delivered," the analyst said.

Porges increased his estimate for Pfizer's share of Comirnaty sales for 2021 to $36.8 billion and for 2022 to $29.7 billion.

Pfizer should be the largest beneficiary of the COVID vaccine market given its clinical data, government interest and manufacturing and distribution capacity, the analyst said.

Vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, Inc. MRNA will likely continue to sell at premium pricing to those of AstraZeneca plc AZN and Johnson & Johnson JNJ through 2022, he added.

From over $100 billion in 2022, Pfizer's topline is expected to moderate to $87 billion in 2023 before returning to a more recurring $65 billion in 2024, SVB Leerink said.

Based on the firm's updated revenue and expense forecasts for Pfizer, the company's total cash and marketable securities balance will swell from $29.7 billion on Sept. 30, 2021, to $34.5 billion on Dec. 31 and then to $59.5 billion by the end of 2022, Porges said.

Potential liquidation of Pfizer's 32% ownership in GlaxoSmithKline plc's GSK consumer spin-out is likely to increase the former's cash position by $16.6 billion to $76.1 billion, he added.

The upward adjustment to the price target for Pfizer's shares is due to incremental cash flow and cash SVB now forecasts from Paxlovid and Comirnaty, Porges said.

PFE Price Action: At last check, Pfizer shares were retreating 0.52% to $50.94.

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Posted In: Analyst ColorHealth CarePrice TargetReiterationAnalyst RatingsGeneralGeoffrey PorgesSVB Leerink
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