The Pfizer Analyst: SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges reiterated a Market Perform rating on Pfizer shares and increased the price target from $48 to $52.

The Pfizer Thesis: Pfizer's top line will exceed $100 billion in 2022 compared to $82 billion this year thanks to incremental revenue contributions from Comirnaty and Paxlovid, Porges said in a note.

Paxlovid revenue is likely to come in at $95 million in 2021, rising to $24 billion in 2022 and $33 billion in 2023, the analyst said.

Purchases of Paxlovid will be large, with Pfizer having already bagged a $5.3-billion contract from the U.S., Porges said. Revenues from the antiviral will be profitable, he added.

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Universal boosting and pediatric recommendations, the analyst said, should boost COVID-19 vaccine revenue. The analyst estimates $59 billion in 2021 COVID vaccine sales and $48 billion in 2022 globally.

"By the end of 2022, we expect $107bn in cumulative sales from over 13bn doses of Comirnaty delivered," the analyst said.

Porges increased his estimate for Pfizer's share of Comirnaty sales for 2021 to $36.8 billion and for 2022 to $29.7 billion.

Pfizer should be the largest beneficiary of the COVID vaccine market given its clinical data, government interest and manufacturing and distribution capacity, the analyst said.

From over $100 billion in 2022, Pfizer's topline is expected to moderate to $87 billion in 2023 before returning to a more recurring $65 billion in 2024, SVB Leerink said.

Based on the firm's updated revenue and expense forecasts for Pfizer, the company's total cash and marketable securities balance will swell from $29.7 billion on Sept. 30, 2021, to $34.5 billion on Dec. 31 and then to $59.5 billion by the end of 2022, Porges said.

Potential liquidation of Pfizer's 32% ownership in GlaxoSmithKline plc's (NYSE:GSK) consumer spin-out is likely to increase the former's cash position by $16.6 billion to $76.1 billion, he added.

The upward adjustment to the price target for Pfizer's shares is due to incremental cash flow and cash SVB now forecasts from Paxlovid and Comirnaty, Porges said.

PFE Price Action: At last check, Pfizer shares were retreating 0.52% to $50.94.

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