The Santa Rally refers to a seasonal stock market trend where equities historically see stronger gains during the final stretch of December.
This phenomenon, often fueled by holiday cheer, year-end portfolio rebalancing, and investor optimism, has been a recurring pattern for decades.
But what makes December stand out, and which stocks have historically outperformed during this period?
Let's dig into the numbers.
December: A Seasonal Sweet Spot For Stocks
After a strong rally in November, with the S&P 500 – as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) – rallying 6%, “momentum could continue for stocks as historically it has been a good month for stock market seasonals,” said George Smith, portfolio strategist at LPL Financials.
Since 1950, December ranks as the second-best month for the S&P 500, delivering an average return of 1.6%. Only November performs better, with a historical average of 1.8%.
Smith also highlighted that the second half of December has typically delivered the lion's share of these gains, generating the so-called “Santa Rally” effect.
Historically, stocks tend to stall or even decline slightly during the first half of the month before momentum builds around mid-December. Data suggests that the upward trajectory starts gaining steam near the 11th trading day of the month and accelerates as Christmas approaches.
Top 10 S&P 500 Stocks With Strong Christmas Seasonality
For investors looking to capitalize on the Santa Rally, certain stocks have a history of delivering outsized gains in the back half of December.
Looking back at the last 20 years of data, here are the top 10 S&P 500 stocks that have historically shown the strongest average returns between Dec. 12 and Dec. 31:
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