In a recent turn of events, Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine could potentially reach a “stalemate,” with Moscow gaining ground. This development has raised concerns about the best-case scenario for Ukraine’s future in 2024.
What Happened: Despite predictions of a potential stalemate in the Ukraine war by defense experts, Russia’s recent advancements have sparked concerns. The city of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine has been captured by Russian forces, along with several smaller settlements, reported CNBC on Tuesday.
This momentum, combined with ongoing worries about Ukraine’s ammunition shortages and stalled U.S. military aid, has prompted fears that a stalemate may be the best-case scenario for Ukraine in 2024. A worst-case scenario could see Russian forces breaking through Ukraine’s defensive positions along parts of the front line.
Ben Barry, a senior fellow for Land Warfare at the IISS defense and security think tank, stated that Russia’s assault on Ukraine is gaining momentum amid stalled Western aid. This makes the upcoming months critical to the conflict’s trajectory.
He added that Russia successfully taking over Avdiivka and more, "raise the question of whether the Ukrainian assessment in late 2023 that the war would stalemate in 2024 may have been optimistic."
He emphasized that Russia’s recent territorial gains raise questions about Ukraine’s late 2023 assessment that the war would stalemate in 2024. Russia’s willingness to take territory despite high casualty figures, coupled with a lack of sustained Western supply of artillery ammunition to Kyiv, have created the conditions for the most recent shift in the land campaign’s momentum.
Why It Matters: The war in Ukraine has been a significant geopolitical issue, with China’s special envoy for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, articulating a potential path to peace in March. Hui emphasized the role of negotiations in ending the conflict, suggesting a different approach to the ongoing military confrontation.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied any plans to attack NATO countries but warned against deploying F-16 fighters in Ukraine.
Photo via Shutterstock
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