To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Folding Apple iPhone

Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is apparently working on two folding iPhones. Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (OTC:SSNLF) folding smartphones have been very popular. AAPL stock carries a very heavy weight in indexes. In the early trade, there is significant buying in AAPL stock. The speculation of folding phones from Apple is adding to the already extreme positive sentiment in the stock market. 

Extreme Sentiment

Please click here for an enlarged version of the chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA). 

Note the following:

Commercial Real Estate Problems

You may remember the banking crisis when Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic, and Signature Bank went bankrupt in March 2023. Since then, there has been a massive rally in the stocks of regional banks on hopium. Serious commercial real estate loan problems remain. In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors need to be alert to real estate loan problems.  

Moody’s has just cut New York Community Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE:NYCB) to junk status. Only six days ago, NYCB was considered a solid, well-managed bank. The bank was so respected that last year FDCI chose NYCB to buy the assets of Signature Bank. In the last six days, NYCB stock has fallen from above $10 to the $4 range.  

China

In a surprise move, China has replaced its top stock market regulator. The new regulator is Wu Qing, a respected banker.  In The Arora Report analysis, this surprise move is an attempt by President Xi to move the Chinese stock market higher.  

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in NVDA.

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is buying gold in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV). 

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 0.674M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 2.133M barrels.  

The momo crowd is buying oil in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:USO).

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is range bound.  Sentiment in bitcoin continues to be bullish as the belief is steadfast that it is only a matter of time before bitcoin whales run up bitcoin above $50,000.  Bitcoin bulls are hoping that bitcoin whales will take advantage of the low liquidity over the coming weekend to run up bitcoin.  

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls.  The Arora Report correctly called the 2008 financial crash, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, the COVID crash, the post-COVID bull market, and the 2022 bear market.  Please click here to sign up for a free forever Generate Wealth Newsletter.

This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.