European Leadership Needs to Step Up and Respond Immediately

• Eurozone leadership needs to step up now
• Impact of Greek exit would be catastrophic
• Currencies oversold and still in need of some corrective action
• Spanish GDP meets expectation; Spanish auction well received

We have now reached a point where a serious emergence of leadership in the Eurozone is needed. While some would argue that a Greece exit would be best, as it would rid the rest of the Eurozone from having to deal with the Greek financial crisis, we contend that a Greek exit would be catastrophic, as it would only open the door for exits by other ailing economies within the Eurozone. It is true that in the grand scheme, Greece is a rather small threat to the broader economy, but if investors started to expect such exits from other countries as a result, this would truly be an unwelcome development which would significantly undermine the Euro's prospects.

Relative performance versus the USD Thursday (as of 11:20GMT)

JPY +0.17%

AUD +0.04%

NZD +0.03%

CAD -0.18%

CHF -0.19%

EUR -0.20%

GBP -0.45%

As such, we feel that the proper response, in the interests of stability, is for Eurozone leadership to act fast and make the necessary commitment to ensure that they will be there through the worst of times, despite the costs associated with such a commitment. It is easy to stay loyal and show commitment when it is not needed, but it is in times of crisis when one is really tested to step up and back up convictions. Now is the time for European leadership to step up and swallow whatever necessary to keep the local and global economy from slipping deeper into the abyss. One of the major critiques of the Eurozone is the ability for so many different countries to stand together under one economic umbrella. Clearly this is now being tested, and the only way to respond, is through a unified commitment at whatever the cost.

Markets were mostly caught in consolidation in European trade on Thursday, but it is worth noting that trading volumes were a good deal lighter given the European holiday session. The only key developments in the session were an as expected Spanish GDP and fairly well received Spanish auction. Still, the Euro remained pressured by weekly lows and seemed intent on an immediate retest of the January yearly lows at 1.2625 before contemplating highly oversold technical studies. As of today, the Euro will need to break back above 1.2760 to take the pressure off of the downside. Looking ahead, there is a decent amount of data due in the North American session, highlighted by the Philly Fed.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

EUR/USD:The market remains under intense pressure and the focus for now is squarely on a retest of the 2012 lows from January at 1.2625. While we would not rule out a possibility of a test of this level over the coming sessions, short-term technical studies are well oversold and are showing a need for some form of a corrective bounce from where a fresh lower top is sought out. Ultimately however, any rallies should now be very well capped by previous support turned resistance at 1.3000 in favor of additional weakness over the medium-term that projects deeper setbacks into the lower 1.2000's.

USD/JPY:The market continues to consolidate around 80.00 and is in the process of looking for a medium-term higher low ahead of the next major upside extension back above the yearly highs at 84.20 and towards 90.00 further up. However, for the time being it remains in question whether the market will still head lower towards the 200-Day SMA by 78.50 before ultimately reversing higher. The key level to watch above comes in by 80.60, and a break and close above this level will officially alleviate downside pressures and suggest that a higher low has now been carved in the 79.00's.

GBP/USD:The latest daily close below 1.6050 now opens the door for an acceleration of declines over the coming days back down towards next key support in the 1.5800's. At this point, look for any intraday rallies to be very well capped ahead of 1.6200, while only back above 1.6300 would negate outlook and give reason for pause.

USD/CHF:Overall the structure remains highly constructive and we continue to project additional upside over the coming months back above parity. For now, the latest break and close above 0.9335 is expected to accelerate gains for a retest of the yearly highs by 0.9600, while any intraday pullbacks should be very well supported ahead of 0.9200. Ultimately, only back under 0.9000 would negate outlook and give reason for pause.

--- Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

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