The 2024 presidential election could end up being a rematch of the 2020 election race, which saw voters choose between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Currently serving as the 46th president, Biden defeated Trump in the 2020 presidential election.
A weekly poll showed a potential matchup between the two past presidents is fairly even among voters.
What Happened: President Biden has been the favorite to win the Democratic Party nomination in the 2024 election. While some in his party have expressed concern over his age, Biden has polled well ahead of the limited challengers he currently faces for the party’s nomination.
News this week saw Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce he would no longer run as a Democratic candidate, instead choosing the third-party or independent route. This could make it easier for Biden to secure the Democratic nomination for the 2024 presidential election but also take potential votes away from him in the general election.
If Biden wins the Democratic nomination, he will likely face off against Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the two candidates who have dominated GOP polls for months.
The weekly Morning Consult poll asked registered voters who they would select in hypothetical elections of Trump vs. Biden and Biden vs. DeSantis.
In this week’s poll, Biden received 43% of the vote compared to 42% for Trump. Nine percent said they would vote for someone else and five percent said they were unsure who they would select.
This marked an improvement for Biden, who found himself tied with Trump in last week’s poll at 42%.
In a matchup between Biden and DeSantis, Biden won with a 41% to 38% advantage. Thirteen percent said they would vote for someone else and 7% said they were unsure who they would vote for.
While Biden kept a three percentage point advantage over DeSantis, both candidates lost a point and more voters said they would vote for someone else.
Related Link: Is Joe Biden To Blame? Voters Are Less Confident In The Democratic Party, Survey Shows
Why It’s Important: After being tied with Trump, Biden is now back on top in the hypothetical poll over the former president.
Over the past three weeks, Biden has been tied with Trump twice and ahead once.
Since tracking began, Biden has led Trump in all but three polls, with one poll having Trump take the lead and the two recent ties.
Biden has often led Trump by one to two percentage points, with the matchups remaining close from voters polls.
Five weeks ago, Biden had a three-point lead over Trump in one of his biggest advantages in recent months, before seeing momentum shift towards Trump in the weekly poll.
Biden has also been losing ground with DeSantis in recent weeks. In most weeks, Biden has enjoyed a four- or five-point advantage over the Florida governor.
The momentum shift for Biden came after it was recently announced Biden’s son Hunter Biden was indicted and faced federal charges over a weapon purchased in 2018.
Biden has ramped up spending on political advertising in recent months.
Trump and Biden have entered a potentially pivotal time for the 2024 election, with Trump skipping the Republican primary debates and likely setting his eyes on the potential rematch with the current president.
Trump skipped both of the first two Republican primary debates and plans on skipping the third debate in November as well. The former president has been gaining support from Republican voters despite skipping the debates.
The rise of Trump in the poll could come with voters more confident Trump can win the Republican nomination and carry the momentum to beating Biden. That paired with Biden’s recent news cycle and concerns over his age might be swaying voters to Trump.
Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom has been considered a potential candidate to run against Biden in the 2024 election by some experts but has publicly said he’s not running.
A planned debate between DeSantis and Newsom that will air on Fox News in November could be a precursor to a potential run by Newsom depending on support and reception from the event. The debate between the two governors of rival parties is being called a “Red state vs. Blue state debate.”
The latest betting odds for the 2024 election at sportsbooks show Trump as the favorite to win the presidency with Biden trailing close behind. Outside of the two major contenders, potential Democratic candidates Newsome and Michelle Obama rank third and fourth.
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