The U.S. housing market faces increased pressure as the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by seven basis points to 6.87%, a peak not seen in the past two months.
This rise in mortgage rates, as reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) on Wednesday, is a direct consequence of a slew of robust economic data and stickier-than-expected inflation, which have pushed long-term benchmark Treasury yields higher.
Amid these rising rates, the mortgage sector has experienced a downturn in activity, indicating the rising cost of borrowing for prospective homeowners. This was evidenced by a 2.3% decrease in mortgage applications, a notable pullback from the 3.7% gain observed in the preceding week.
Chart: Mortgage Rates Saw A New Uptick Last Week
January’s Inflation Surprised To The Upside, Yields Rise
In January, the U.S. annual inflation rate was 3.1%, slowing down from December’s 3.4% print but coming in above expectations of 2.9%. The monthly rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket was also higher than expected (0.3% vs. 0.2%).
Particularly alarming was the core inflation rate, excluding volatile energy and food prices, which held firm at 3.9% year-on-year in January, surpassing the anticipated 3.7%.
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The bond market, which plays a critical role in setting mortgage rates, reacted sharply to the inflation data. The yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries climbed to 4.30% and 4.47%, respectively, on Tuesday, echoing levels last seen in early December 2023, reflecting growing investor apprehension towards a resumption of inflationary pressures.
Chart: 30-Year Treasury Yields Nears 4.5%, The Highest Since Late November
Traders Trim Rate Cut Bets, Mortgage-Related Stocks Sink
Market speculators have adjusted their expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts, now anticipating less than a full percentage point of cumulative reductions by December 2024—a significant revision from the 175 basis points anticipated just a month earlier.
Following the inflation report and the bond market’s response, the real estate sector emerged as one of the most adversely affected, with the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund XLRE experiencing a 1.8% decline on Tuesday, reaching monthly lows.
Similarly, the mortgage industry, as tracked by the iShares Mortgage Real Estate ETF REM, plummeted by 3.9%, marking its lowest point since mid-November 2023.
Among the most impacted stocks were Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. CMTG, which saw an over 8% drop, Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation ACRE, down by 7.8%, and New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. NYMT, which fell by 6.3%.
Chart: Mortgage Real Estate Stocks Have Retraced More Than Half Of The Oct-Dec Rally
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