No New Deals For Boeing As Airbus Continues Order Blitz At Paris Air Show

Airbus SE EADSY stole the spotlight on Day 2 of the Paris Air Show with a $6.6 billion VietJet deal, widening its lead over Boeing Company BA as Bank of America Securities (BofA) flagged diverging order momentum and shifting industry dynamics.

After engaging with over 20 companies on Day Two of the Paris Air Show, analysts observed a continued emphasis on themes from earlier discussions. However, they particularly noted a stronger drive toward automation, bullish sentiment regarding European defense opportunities, expectations for margin expansion, and industry strategies for managing tariff risks.

BofA Securities noted that rising cost pressures, particularly labor, are challenging historical views and driving the aerospace and defense sector toward increased automation to meet demand, boost margins, and improve quality.

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BofA observed that companies with local European subsidiaries are best positioned for the region’s defense spending upcycle, amidst questions about U.S. participation, highlighted by limited American presence.

Tariffs remain a key uncertainty, with consensus leaning toward a return to the 1979 WTO agreement, the BofA report mentioned.

Boeing: The analysts met with Boeing’s VP of Commercial Marketing, Darren Hulst, to discuss fleet dynamics and a growing aircraft supply gap.

Hulst pointed to a looming widebody ramp-up, noting that 2024 production is still less than half of 2018 levels, with supply chain issues, the 787 production halt, and delays in the 777X and A350 driving a 300-aircraft shortfall.

Over the past 4.5 years, Boeing’s widebody jets have outsold Airbus SE EADSY by 2.5x, driven by the 787’s family structure and shared engine platform, whereas the A350 lacks engine commonality and is slightly oversized.

On the narrowbody side, Hulst flagged a deficit of 1,500-1,700 aircraft, stemming from COVID disruptions, the 737 MAX production halt, and A320 supply issues.

This continues to support demand for both fleet replacement and growth. The current narrowbody fleet is around two years older than in 2018, and Boeing expects up to a third of all 737s to be MAX 10 variants by the decade’s end.

However, Hulst conceded that demand for the A321 will likely remain stronger, given its 7-year lead.

Airbus: On Day 2 of the Paris Air Show, Airbus extended its lead by securing a ~$6.6 billion deal with VietJet Aviation for 100 A321s and 50 options, bringing its total to 232 firm orders and 156 options, BofA Securities highlighted.

This latest agreement brings Airbus’s total announced orders at the event to 232 aircraft, plus options for an additional 156. In contrast, Embraer S.A. ERJ has secured a single defense order for its C-390, with options for 10 more aircraft for potential NATO members, while Boeing has not yet announced any new deals at the show.

Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT: Lockheed Martin executives shared key strategic updates, highlighting growth prospects across autonomous systems, missile defense, and NATO-aligned production.

The company is advancing its MATRIX AI for Black Hawk helicopters to enable autonomous and optionally unmanned operations, an appealing solution for military logistics in contested zones, BofA Securities pointed out.

Lockheed is also positioned to capitalize on missile defense demand, aiming to integrate its well-established systems into the U.S.’s layered defense strategy and expand its counter-UAS capabilities.

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