Why Marvell's AI Revenue Could Top $4 Billion By 2025, Analyst Explains

JP Morgan analyst Harlan Sur maintained an Overweight rating on Marvell Technology, Inc. MRVL with a price forecast of $130 on Tuesday.

This price forecast is based on Marvell’s strong market leadership in optical connectivity, synergies with its Storage, Networking, and embedded processing franchises, and its solid growth outlook in AI/Networking, Sur asserted.

Marvell will report earnings on Thursday, and Sur expects a continued volume ramp of Amazon.Com, Inc. AMZN Trainium 2 ASIC and Alphabet Inc. GOOGL GOOG Google Axion ARM CPU programs, strong demand for its 800G products, and the initial ramp of 1.6T optical DSPs, combined with a continued cyclical recovery in its enterprise and carrier segments.

Also Read: Cramer Backs Marvell Again As AI Deals With Amazon, Microsoft Fuel Stock Surge

Overall, the analyst expects April quarter results ($1.875 billion, up 3% Q/Q) and July quarter guidance ($2.00 billion+, 7% Q/Q) to be in line with Sur and consensus estimates, with solid data center growth led by its AI ASIC ramps, growth in 800G/1.6T AI optical shipments, 400ZR shipments, and HDD/SSD controllers. He noted that the remainder of its business should drive a Q/Q growth profile on cyclical improvements/new product cycles.

Sur noted that Marvell’s Microsoft Corp. MSFT AI ASIC MAIA Gen 2-3nm program is on track to ramp in calendar year 2026. Marvell has also won the Gen 3 MAIA program and has already commenced early chip design activity, he stated.

The analyst said that 800G PAM4 optical DSP orders and shipments remain solid within Marvell’s optical business, with an increasing ramp of next-gen 1.6T DSP into the second half.

Sur noted that Marvell is tracking to drive $4 billion in AI revenues this year (ASICs + networking), up 2x+ Y/Y, with a strong growth profile into calendar year 2026.

In cyclical business, demand from enterprise networking (Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCO) remains healthy, and demand for carrier infrastructure is stabilizing, as per Sur.

In automotive, the divestiture of the auto business, expected to close in the calendar year 2025 ($225-$250 million revenue in the fiscal year 2026), is a revenue headwind but should be overall accretive to the Marvell’s earnings power by $0.05-$0.10, the analyst said. More importantly, he noted the custom data center and AI ASIC pipeline are continuing to expand.

Price Action: MRVL stock was trading higher by 5.69% to $64.15 at last check Tuesday.

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