Market Overview

Why E-Commerce Is The No. 1 Stay-At-Home Theme

Why E-Commerce Is The No. 1 Stay-At-Home Theme

Morgan Stanley previewed the rising e-commerce trend as shelter-in-place arrangements continue in many states across the country.

Analyst Brian Nowak raised e-commerce estimates for Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) and Etsy (NASDAQ: ETSY) and previewed second-quarter earnings for Chewy
(NYSE: CHWY), Wayfair (NYSE: W), Revolve Group (NYSE: RVLV), and Casper Sleep (NYSE: CSPR).

The analyst named the following as macro e-commerce themes to watch into earnings season and fiscal year 2021:

  • Detail on buyers
  • Retention strategies
  • How do companies think about growth in FY21?
  • How are customer acquisition channels changing?
  • Is e-commerce becoming more direct?
  • How is social media fitting in?

AMZN: Nowak is bullish on Amazon and called it a top pick. He maintained a price target of $3,450.

EBAY: Nowak raised the eBay price target from $52 to $62 given positive trends. "Buyer retention (and GMV growth) into ’21 is likely to be key to continuing to drive outperformance," the analyst said. 

CHWY: "We continue to believe CHWY is best positioned to retain new customers acquired during COVID," he said. 

ETSY: Nowak raised Q2 GMS growth estimates to 150%, the price target from $43 to $65 and reiterated an Underweight rating on the stock.

W: Nowak expects W’s second-quarter results to “significantly beat forecasts.” Wayfair could deliver approximately 90% revenue growth in the second quarter, the analyst said, adding that strong sales trends have spilled over into July.

CSPR: “We expect top-line to be relatively in-line with expectations, with slightly better eCommerce growth likely offset by longer store closures in select states and store based wholesale partner pressure.”

RVLV: Given the reinstatement of stay-at-home measures in California, Texas, and Florida, there is incremental risk to Revolve’s forecasts for the rest of the year, according to Morgan Stanley. 

Latest Ratings for AMZN

Jul 2020Canaccord GenuityMaintainsBuy
Jul 2020Credit SuisseMaintainsOutperform
Jul 2020Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight

View More Analyst Ratings for AMZN
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