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In a report published Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst William Greene discussed feedback he had received to asking investor opinion which airline stock has the least upside.
According to Greene, the responses were "fairly diverse" but
Virgin America IncVA was a standout. The airline received 33 percent of the vote has the company has seen competitive pressures in the Dallas/Fort Worth and Transcon markets of late.
Hawaiian Holdings, Inc.HA ranked second (19 percent) with investors as the company has experienced headwinds from foreign exchange rates, declining fuel surcharges and elevated capacity additions given its "significant" exposure to the Pacific region and North America-Hawaiian markets.
JetBlue Airways CorporationJBLU tied for third (14 percent) despite an approximate 38 percent year to date return due to strong unit revenues relative to peers. However, risk remains ahead surrounding the company's execution of upcoming revenue/cost-saving initiatives.
Southwest Airlines CoLUV tied for third (14 percent) as investors are concerned that its valuation on a 2016 EV/EBITDA basis remains "elevated" compared to peers at approximately 5.5x.
Alaska Air Group, Inc.ALK ranked fourth (10 percent) as the ‘Battle for Seattle' continues with elevated capacity additions that are expected to continue through the summer.
Allegiant Travel CompanyALGT ranked last (five percent) as the an ongoing labor uncertainty and growth stimulated by low fuel remains a risk that could lead to negative earnings per share revisions if a labor deal is finalized earlier than expected and/or fuel continues to rise.
Lastly,
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also ranked last (five percent) as its exposure to weak international and energy-related markets have weighed on unit revenues.
Of note,
American Airlines Group IncAAL,
Delta Air Lines, Inc.DAL, and
Spirit Airlines IncorporatedSAVE received no votes. Greene noted this may imply a relatively attractive risk to reward profile for these names.
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Posted In: Analyst ColorAnalyst RatingsAirlinersAirlinesFuel PricesIndustrialsMorgan StanleyWilliam Greene
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