The Kentucky Derby And Doubtful Destiny

How likely is a thoroughbred racing Triple Crown repeat? American Pharoah was only the twelfth horse in 141 attempts to accomplish this amazing feat. Also, it was the first time since 1978, when Affirmed completed the sweep.

Historical Perspective

What made Affirmed accomplishment even more remarkable is that it duplicated the feat by Seattle Slew in 1977, which, by the way, was only four years after Secretariat dazzled the racing world in 1973, which ended the drought began in 1949. If not for Spectacular Bid’s third place finish in the 1979 Belmont, there would have been an unprecedented three consecutive Triple Crown Winners, and total of four in the decade.

That would have equaled the heyday of Triple Crown Winners in the 1940s. Specifically, Whirlaway (1941), Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946) and Citation (1948) were all distinguished champions. The 1930s similarly provided horse racing fans with plenty of excitement, with three Triple Crown winners Gallant Fox (1930), Omaha (1935) and War Admiral (1937). All totaled, seven of the twelve Triple Crown winners in an 18 year span.

Similar Athletic Feats

It is certainly difficult to draw a sports comparison to back to back Triple Crown winners, since this achievement revolves around an individual accomplishment by two distinct athletes who are working in tandem.

Perhaps the closest comparison would involve baseball’s Triple Crown in batting. In 2012, Miguel Cabrera (Detroit Tigers), ended the drought since 1967, when Carl Yastrzemski (Boston Red Sox) won the Triple Crown. Interestingly, that followed Orioles’ Frank Robinson’s feat the previous year. That marked only the second time in baseball history that this spectacular milestone was accomplished. It also happened in 1933 and 1934.

American Pharaoh Ends The Drought

Since 1981, 13 horses have captured the first two jewels of the Triple Crown, but have come up short in the grueling 1 ½ Mile Belmont Stakes, the longest of three races. Two of the attempts have taken place in the last three years.

After the most recent failed attempt by thoroughbred California Chrome (winner of Derby and Preakness) in 2014, disgruntled owner Steve Coburn proclaimed that the feat may never be accomplished again. He publicly declared that there should be a rule change, forcing any Belmont participant to race in the two previous legs, to prevent a fresh horse from being the spoiler.

Handicapping The Race

Enough history: who are the contenders to win the Kentucky Derby? At this time, the heavy favorite is Nyquist (named after Detroit Red Wings Gustav Nyquist,) who hails from the same barn (Doug O’Neil) and owner (J. Paul Reddam) as previous winner I’ll Have Another. His attempt at the Crown was mysteriously ended on the day before the Belmont, when the team decided to scratch, citing tendonitis.

It's hard to argue against Nyquist having the best shot to win the Kentucky Derby. After all, the colt was the two-year old champion, winning the 2015 Breeders Cup, as well as the 2015 Eclipse Award.

The horse is undefeated in seven races, the most recent being an impressive three and quarter length win in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on April 2. His time was a blazing 1:49.11.

However, any veteran wagerer knows that betting on the favorite is not always the most rewarding proposition. Although favorites have won in back to back Derbies, the favorite has crossed the wire first in only 7 of the last 37 races, dating back to Spectacular Bid’s win as the favorite in 1979.

Therefore, when leaning towards laying off the favorite or a mount to pair with Nyquist in an Exacta, look no further than the Arkansas Derby winner, Creator. Perhaps he can follow in the footsteps of American Pharoah, who cruised to victory in 2015 in the Arkansas.

In an extremely impressive fashion,Creator came from dead last and an astounding 12 lengths back and circled the entire field of 11 horses on his way to victory. With up to 20 horses being in the field for the Derby, whomever the early pace-setters are, they will certainly have to contend with stampede of late-closers to the finish line, who have navigated their way into the clear.

Another horse to include in some combos is the Santa Anita Derby winner, Exaggerator. The colt had an impressive-come-from behind victory, pulling away by 6 ¼ lengths on a muddy track. Keep in mind that the winner of the Santa Anita Derby has been victorious in two of the last three Derbies (I’ll Have Another in 2013 and California Chrome in 2014).

Dream Alive For Two More Weeks

Whether the victor is Nyquist, Creator, or some other horse who wins the Run For The Roses, one thing will be certain. The pursuit of the rare feat of back to back Triple Crown winners will be alive for at least two more weeks, when we’ll get to enjoy the running of the Preakness Stakes on May 21.