Elon Musk Says People 'Need To Have' 3 Kids To Avoid Population Collapse, Says This Is To Make Up For People Who Have One Or None

Elon Musk says humanity can dodge a "population collapse" only if today's parents aim higher than two kids.

What Happened: The billionaire told his 221 million followers on X that "people who have kids do need to have 3 kids to make up for those who have 0 or 1," or birth-rate math will "collapse" society.

Musk fired off the post after entrepreneur Mario Nawfal shared Fortune data showing scientists now peg the replacement rate at 2.7 children per woman, up from the long-accepted 2.1. By contrast, the United States sits at 1.66, and rich nations such as Italy (1.29) and Japan (1.30) are even lower.

The Tesla CEO has pounded this drum for years, warning that shrinking families threaten economic growth, innovation and even survival. Last fall, he told followers that Europe's plunging fertility made a "population collapse … a certainty." In March, he even confessed to declining birth rates as the one thought that "keeps him awake at night."

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Why It Matters: Demographers say the concern is real. CDC figures show America's fertility rate hit another record low in 2024. Globally, average fertility has fallen from about 5.3 births per woman in 1963 to under 2.5 today, according to Our World in Data. Italy's national statistics office reports parts of Sardinia are already below one child per woman. Japan's 2024 handbook puts its rate near 1.3, despite decades of pronatalist subsidies.

Economists at the International Monetary Fund warn that fewer babies can mean labor shortages, higher pension costs and slower growth unless countries boost productivity or immigration.

Musk, a father of 14, backs incentives for bigger families in aging nations such as Japan, South Korea and much of Europe. "The birth rate is very low in almost every country. And unless that changes, civilization will disappear," he said in March.

Photo Courtesy: Frederic Legrand – COMEO On Shutterstock.com

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