Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh sees BEV (Battery electric vehicle) as a bright spot amid macro headwinds led by China rebounding. He saw Shanghai re-opening and government stimulus set up a robust 2H22 recovery and likely benefit NIO Inc NIO and Tesla, Inc TSLA (with Berlin also ramping to ~1000/week of model-Y's).
He also expected a better 2H22 from Rivian Automotive, Inc RIVN as production ramps, with chassis, powertrain, and battery production lines ramping well though some commodity chip constraints with a second shift phased in starting June-July and EBITDA breakeven in 2024E.
Rakesh expects TSLA to continue to be a leader in the EV market with improving battery technology, a strong ADAS/AD roadmap, and an emerging energy storage player.
He estimated TSLA to deliver ~1.6 million vehicles in 2023E, with the overall top line at ~ $98.6 billion. Rakesh rated TSLA a Buy with a $1,300 price target.
Rakesh sees RIVN as a pure-play and early solid mover in the EV market, focusing on the higher-growth SUV and light truck market and a robust commercial vehicle roadmap beginning with Amazon.com Inc AMZN.
He saw Rivian poised to benefit from improving costs with scale and a well-laid-out path towards further vertical integration giving more control to the production and delivery of vehicles.
He estimated RIVN to deliver ~74,000 vehicles in 2023E, with the top line at ~$6 billion. He rated RIVN Buy with an $80 price target.
Rakesh sees NIO's value leadership in the premium EV segment with solid battery technology and ADAS roadmaps as growth drivers. He rated NIO Buy with a $55 price target.
Its core business, focused on domestic China, is another advantage with regulatory support and market familiarity.
Global expansion is in the works and will likely become a meaningful contributor to future growth.
Price Action: RIVN shares traded higher by 4.84% at $28.63 on the last check Wednesday.
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