In terms of the wave count, we're seeing a very nice three-wave retracement in gold back to the 2600 level, which is a key level from mid-September when the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points. This level could now serve as a good area for the next swing to the upside. Ideally, this push higher could occur in the fifth wave, especially if the price breaks above the 2635 resistance, markets as bullish level, which could open the door to 2700.

On the downside, the channel support is critical, but the most important level for identifying a potential top would be a break below 2532. Only then could we say the top is in place, as this would invalidate the uptrend based on Elliott Wave rules, which dictate that wave 4 must not fall into the territory of wave 1.

Trade Well,

Grega Horvat

Forex Analytix