To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Key Events Ahead
Please click here for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart shows the steep rally that started on Powell’s press conference.
- Yesterday, we wrote:
If political Powell shows up, expect a rip roaring rally.
In The Arora Report analysis, there may be a re-think of the stock market rally as Powell was not able to support his dovishness with data or compelling argument.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:GOOG).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
Gold
As we are ready to publish this post, all of a sudden, significant selling is coming in gold.
The momo crowd is buying gold in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV).
Oil
As we are ready to publish this post, all of a sudden, significant selling is coming in oil.
The momo crowd is buying oil in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:USO).
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is seeing buying on dovish Powell.
Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
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