Each year, millions of Americans wager money on NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament games and take part in office and online bracket challenges.
Predicting a winner is tough before the March Madness bracket has been revealed. Using data can help look at some teams that could have the best chance to win the NCAA Tournament and could be good bets with March arriving.
What Happened: The University of Kansas began the season as the top ranked team and had the best odds to win the 2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. The team is now ranked seventh in the AP Top 25 poll and has a 21-6 record.
While they are no longer the top ranked team, there could be good news for Kansas fans and bettors, as the team ranks as one of the best offensive and defensive teams in the country.
Dating back to 1999, Ken Pomeroy has provided basketball rankings known as KenPom that take into account offensive and defensive efficiencies and also predicts which teams would win in matchups.
Since 2002, all but two teams that won the championship ranked as a top 20 adjusted offensive efficiency and top 20 adjusted defensive efficiency team based on the KenPom rankings.
Using this knowledge and data from the 2024 season through February, bettors could get an edge when looking at futures betting, with the understanding that teams could drop out of the top 20.
Here are the teams that currently rank in the top 20 of both offensive and defensive efficiency.
- Connecticut: 4th offensive, 18th defensive
- Arizona: 7th offensive, 11th defensive
- Auburn: 13th offensive, 6th defensive
- Houston: 17th offensive, 1st defensive
- Tennessee: 18th offensive, 4th defensive
There you have it, there are currently five teams that are most likely to win the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament if it were held today. The key here is that there are more games to be played and several teams are close in both metrics.
Here are teams that rank close to making the cut.
- Purdue: 2nd offensive, 22nd defensive
- Duke: 8th offensive, 25th defensive
- Creighton: 11th offensive, 23rd defensive
- Marquette: 21st offensive, 14th defensive
- North Carolina: 25th offensive, 7th defensive
- TCU: 35th offensive, 30th defensive
For comparison, Kansas currently ranks 9th defensively, but ranks 47th offensively, which could see the team failing to meet the likely criteria to win the championship.
Other top teams in one category show a potential lack of balance that could slow them down in the tournament. Alabama ranks 1st offensively but 100th defensively, Illinois ranks 3rd offensively and 95th defensively, Iowa State ranks 2nd defensively and 51st offensively, and Rutgers ranks 3rd defensively and 273rd offensively.
Related Link: Perfect March Mandess Bracket? Don’t Count On It, The Longshot And Potential Impossible Odds
Betting Odds: Here's a look at the betting odds for the teams mentioned above to win the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament and to make the final four, with data from sportsbook DraftKings Inc DKNG.
- Connecticut: +500 champion, +110 make Final Four
- Arizona: +1,400, +280
- Auburn: +2,000, +450
- Houston: +750, +170
- Tennessee: +1,300, +280
- Purdue: +750, +170
- Duke: +2,800, +550
- Creighton +3,000, +650
- Marquette: +2,000, +450
- North Carolina: +1,800, +400
- TCU: +10,000, +2,500
ESPN's Bracketology from Joe Lunardi currently shows Purdue, Connecticut, Houston and Arizona as the number one seeds and Marquette, North Carolina, Tennessee and Iowa State as the two seeds. The three seeds are listed as Baylor, Kansas, Alabama and Creighton.
While getting a top seed doesn't guarantee winning, 33 of the last 38 winners have been a top three seed in the tournament, including seven of the last eight winners.
That means the teams that fit the criteria of top 20 offensive and defensive ranking and a top three seed as of today are Connecticut, Houston, Arizona and Tennessee, which would be the four best bets today.
Teams that are close in top 20 rankings and also could be top three seeds are Purdue, Marquette, North Carolina and Creighton.
The large betting odds for TCU also jump out as a potential longshot bet if the team can improve its offensive and defensive rankings and also get higher than the currently predicted nine seed on Bracketology.
What's Next: The NCAA Men's Basketball season is nearing its end and conference tournaments will begin soon. Selection Sunday, March 17, which will unveil the official brackets, is set for 6 p.m. ET on CBS.
The first four games will be played on March 19 and March 20 on truTV, with the first round set to take place March 21 and March 22.
Warner Bros. Discovery WBD and Paramount Global PARAPARAA have the rights to the tournament games with truTV the exclusive home of the first four games and this year's Final Four (April 6) and Championship (April 8) games being aired exclusively on TBS.
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