The 2024 presidential election could end up being a rematch of the 2020 election, which saw Donald Trump and Joe Biden face off. Biden won the 2020 election, becoming the 46th president of the United States.
New polls reveal conflicting predictions regarding the outcome of a potential rematch.
What Happened: A national poll of registered voters is seeking to prognosticate the result of the 2024 election based on hypothetical outcomes between Biden, Trump and Ron DeSantis, three candidates who have been considered the frontrunners.
The weekly Morning Consult poll sees Biden defeating both Trump and DeSantis in separate hypothetical matchups, proposed to registered voters.
In a poll between Trump and Biden, the Democratic incumbent received 44% of the vote, compared to 41% for Trump. Ten percent said they would vote for someone else, and 5% said they were unsure who they would select.
The poll shows a slight increase for Biden, as he now leads by 4 points, up from a 3-point lead in last week’s poll.
In a hypothetical matchup between Biden and DeSantis, Biden came out on top, getting 44% of the vote versus the 39% for the Florida governor. Eleven percent of respondents said they would vote for someone else and 6% said they were unsure who they would vote for.
Biden maintains his 6-point advantage over DeSantis, an improvement from the 5-point lead he held last week and consistently in preceding weeks.
While the poll from Morning Consult shows a growing lead for Biden against Republican candidates, a poll from The New York Times and Siena College shows a much tighter race between Biden and Trump.
The poll shows both Biden and Trump getting 43% of the vote in a hypothetical rematch, as reported by Politico.
Among registered Republican voters in the poll, Trump secured 88% support, whereas Biden captured 83% backing from registered Democratic voters. Biden was helped in the poll by Independent voters, where he had a 5-point advantage getting 42% of the vote, versus 37% for Trump.
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Why It’s Important: The 2020 election saw Biden defeat Trump with a 306 to 232 margin in the Electoral College. Biden also won the popular vote with 51.3% support, compared to 46.9% for Trump.
Trump continues to dominate the GOP field in recent polls, with the latest Morning Consult poll showing a 58% to 15% lead over DeSantis. The former president has seen 43-point leads in the Morning Consult GOP poll in back-to-back surveys. DeSantis has also seen his support level hit record lows since polling began in December 2022 in consecutive polls.
A Morning Consult poll in June saw Trump take a brief 44% to 41% lead over Biden, which was his first lead since the poll began in December 2022.
The latest polling comes as Trump has been charged in connection to his alleged attempts to reverse the 2020 Presidential election outcome. This is the third time Trump faces criminal charges, a first for any U.S. President.
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