The first 2020 presidential debate was held Tuesday night between U.S. President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Picking A Debate Winner: While some might say there were no winners from the debate, betting odds for Biden to win the presidency all gained last night.
Betfair shows Biden having a 54.4% chance to win the election compared to 42.8% for Trump. This is the best odds for Biden since July 30, when he hit a high of 61.2%. Trump’s best odds from Betfair were 53.9% back in March.
PredictIt is showing a 2 cent boost to Biden’s presidential odds, which are now 61 cents. Trump had no change and is trading at 43 cents.
Electionbettingodds.com, which compiles Betfair, PredictIt and FTX, shows Biden gaining 5.1% and now having a 59.9% chance to win the election. Trump saw his odds fall 4.4% to 38.4%.
What About The Stock Market? Having a consensus winner of the debate was expected to be a positive, due to the current uncertainty hurting the market. A contested election is a major concern of investors. Biden having had a lead in the polls before the debate and gaining after the debate may take away some uncertainty.
The S&P 500 typically moves less than 1% the day after the first debate. In pre-market trading, the S&P 500 was up about 0.3% to 3,345.
What A Biden Win Means: Trump has come down hard on relations with China. A win by Biden could boost China stocks, ETFs and technology companies with large international exposure.
The iShares MSCI China ETF MCHI is an ETF to watch, while Tencent TCEHY is a stock that has been hurt by U.S.-China relations.
The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF XLK could gain on less regulation and tariffs put on China.
The Global US infrastructure Development ETF PAVE is an infrastructure fund to watch with a Biden win.
Biden said Tuesday he doesn't support the Green New Deal proposed by democrats, but has his own Biden Plan that will focus on renewable energy. Renewable energy-related ETFs like ALPS Clean Energy ETF ACES, Invesco Solar ETF TAN and VanEck Vectors Low Energy ETF SMOG could see strong gains from a Biden election win.
Biden also highlighted a focus on zero emissions going forward and a push for electric vehicles.
"We're going to build 500,000 charging stations on all the highways we'll be building in the future," said Biden. This could be a big win for companies like Blink Charging Co BLNK and ChargePoint, which is merging with SPAC Switchback Energy Acquisition Corporation SBE.
Biden is expected to crack down on regulation in industries in the financial, energy and health care sectors. He has also proposed raising the capital gains tax, which could hurt the overall market, but would need a Democratic sweep across Congress as well.
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