Articles written by Barry Knapp - Benzinga

Itching To Ease

Itching to Ease & Two Policy Puts (BN) POWELL: STRONG HIRING BY ITSELF NOT A REASON TO DELAY RATE CUTS

Quadrilemma Back On Track

In last week’s note, Labor Market Conundrums, we discussed questions raised by the last couple of employment reports about labor market demand, supply and where the two shall meet, wage growth.

Labor Market Conundrums

Monetary Policy Report To Congress

Is This Time Different?

Tech Boom Bond Bust

Expectations Convergence

The January Effect

The Wrong Price

Thematic Investing

Confidence Men (Committee)

More Confidence

The Year In Review: 5% Or Bust

In the final of our three outlook notes we are going to review 2023 with an eye on the future. Rather than getting bogged down with details, we are going to discuss our differentiated perspectives on economic output, inflation, policy, equities, fixed income and other asset prices.

2024 Outlook: Put, Pause, Pivot

2024 Outlook Key Forecasts Inflation: Core disinflation but only to the top of the FOMC’s 3%-2% comfort zone Unemployment: Headed well above 4%, likely to be the trigger for the coming Fed pivot Growth: Consumption and investment are slowing, but unlikely to go significantly negative

Growth Scare Ahead

Growth Scare Ahead “Consequently, if consumption and nonresidential investment holds up, with the worst of the residential investment and inventory contraction complete, and the government outlays exceeding receipts by 6% of GDP, a recession of any consequence is a low probability outcome.”

Necessary And Sufficient

Data Dependent Risk-On Rally

There's A New Sheriff In Town

Fiscal Dominance

Modern Industrial Policy

Valuation Comeuppance

The Cure For Restrictive Forward Guidance

Make no mistake, the FOMC pivoted last week from the September meeting’s ‘hawkish hold’ due to the second wave of the supply-driven bear steepening of the Treasury curve and associated damage to bank capital. Even the most hawkish FOMC participants (Bowman, Waller, Logan) softened their stance on additional hikes.

Productivity Boom Or Policy Bust

Exacerbating Excess Treasury Supply

Testing The Fiscal Limit

Eye Of The Storm

Proceeding Recklessly

The Forward Guidance Trap

Banks Selling What They Can

Sell What You Can

Tightening Financial Conditions

Disorderly Disinversion