Analyst Sits On Fence While Initiating Calliditas Citing 'Near-Term Opportunity But Longer-Term Questions'

  • Guggenheim initiated coverage on Calliditas Therapeutics AB CALT with a Neutral rating and an $18 price target.
  • The analyst is impressed with the data Tarpeyo has generated in Immunoglobulin A Nephropathy (IgAN) to date and the initial success the company has had with the commercial rollout of the product.
  • While the analyst commends the Calliditas team for their progress with Tarpeyo in IgAN, including obtaining FDA Accelerated Approval and EU Conditional Approval, it notes mixed physician feedback, with some agreeing Tarpeyo's delayed-release mechanism provides value over a traditional steroid but others wondering if that value is worth the added cost.
  • Those doctors appear "more eager to use" endothelin receptor antagonists (ERAs) or more innovative approaches over time, added the analyst.
  • FY22 Tarpeyo sales reached $36.8 million. The analyst expects continued progress with the launch and estimates peak 2028 U.S. Tarpeyo sales of ~$350 million before losing exclusivity in 2029.
  • Price Action: CALT shares are up 2.90% at $19.50 on the last check Wednesday.
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