Analyst Expects Derisking Required Ahead Of Patent Expiry For This Large Pharma/MedTech Stock

  • Credit Suisse has initiated coverage on Johnson & Johnson JNJ with a Neutral rating and a price target of $170.
  • The analyst says that the company, led by new management underway to transition to a more innovative, higher growth, and more nimble business. 
  • He sees value in the Consumer separation (Kenvue), expected 2H23, which should drive improved valuation for the remaining businesses.
  • The analyst also notes increasing pressure on dividend growth, which has been a driver for the stock due to the separation and the need to retool the Pharma pipeline through R&D or M&A.
  • Related: Johnson & Johnson Expands Cardiovascular Portfolio, Bets $16B In Abiomed's Heart Failure Devices.
  • While mid-term sales and earnings growth of the new JNJ will likely be higher, it remains significantly below Pharma peers given the patent expiries of Stelara, Simponi, and Xarelto from 2023. 
  • There could be potential upside from the big five pipeline products, which Credit Suisse forecasts below company expectations of $5 billion each.
  • But positive derisking data would meaningfully increase low-single-digit growth expectations in the longer term.
  • Price Action: JNJ shares are up 0.39% at $175.55 on the last check Friday.

 

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