Marvell AI Chips Stay On Track, JPMorgan Dismisses Share Loss Chatter

JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur reiterated an Overweight rating on Marvell Technology, Inc MRVL with a price target of $130 on Thursday.

Post the pull-back in Marvell stock Wednesday on sell-side competitor speculation on AI custom chip (ASIC) share loss at Microsoft Corp MSFT and Amazon.com Inc AMZN, Sur felt it necessary to highlight his 10 years of custom chip (ASIC) research on Broadcom Inc AVGO and Marvell, combined with management meetings in March, his prior ASIC update reports, and very recent primary research work and he noted that Marvell’s ASIC programs at Microsoft and AWS are progressing well and there has been no ASIC program share loss at either Microsoft or AWS.

He noted that Marvell’s Trainium 3 (3nm) program at AWS is progressing well (there is no Tranium 2.5 program) and is on track to ramp up in high volumes in calendar 2026.

Also Read: Marvell Stock Gains After Successful CXL Tests With AMD and Intel, Fueling AI-Focused Strategy

With Microsoft, the Maia AI ASIC chip program for Gen 2 (3nm) is also tracking to plan and to ramp in calendar 2026, and more importantly, he noted that Marvell won the Gen 3 Maia (2nm/3nm chiplet – 3DSOIC) program a few months back and has already commenced the early design activity on this chip with production planned for calendar 2027 and 2028 ramp.

Maia will likely be Marvell’s largest AI accelerator ASIC opportunity over the next few years.

Sur noted Marvell’s management team will discuss substantial progress on their existing design win pipeline (Trainium 3, Maia gen 2) and outline new multi-gen wins (such as Maia gen 3 at 2nm) at their June 17 custom ASIC silicon event.

Additionally, the team continues to expand its breadth of ASIC wins for more AI accelerator programs, SmartNIC (Meta), HBM4 advanced logic chips (memory suppliers), and specialized fabric networking chips (hyperscale scale-up).

Overall, Sur noted that Marvell is tracking to drive $4 billion in AI revenues this year (ASICs + networking), up 2x+ Y/Y, with a strong growth profile into calendar 2026.

Sur projected first-quarter revenue of $1.88 billion and adjusted EPS of 61 cents.

Price Action: MRVL stock is up 3.25% at $58.19 at last check Thursday.

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