T-Mobile Beats Estimates, But Customer Growth Leaves Investors Wanting More, Says Analyst

Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider maintained a Buy rating on T-Mobile US, Inc. TMUS on Thursday, with a price target of $285, up from $280.

Schneider expects the stock to trade lower following results that reflected relatively in-line financial metrics and postpaid phone net additions despite a modest uptick in financial guidance.

The analyst noted that, based on his conversations, investors expected a greater upside in postpaid phone net additions and an uptick in guidance, following the company’s historical pattern, especially in light of the acquisitions closed in the quarter.

Also Read: Comcast Hit Hard By Subscriber Exodus, Nearly 630,000 Customers Gone In Q1

Despite the higher promotional activity and churn metrics reported by all wireless carriers in the quarter, Schneider continues to see the wireless market backdrop as very healthy, given the ongoing plan price increases implemented by all carriers in recent months.

The analyst expects the company to continue its core wireless growth algorithm, with broadband driving the next chapter of growth.

Between AT&T Inc T, Verizon Communications Inc VZ, Comcast, and T-Mobile, industry phone net additions are +853k in first-quarter of 2025 or 203k Y/Y which compares to +1,056k in first-quarter of 2024. This implies that industry growth remains relatively healthy but with a slowing growth rate.

On the residential broadband side, AT&T (including DSL), Verizon (total consumer fixed + FWA), Comcast Corp CMCSA, and T-Mobile US, Inc TMUS (FWA) net additions were +596k in the first quarter of 2025 or -33k Y/Y, compared to 629k in the first quarter of 2024.

This implies that the industry is slowing somewhat.

Schneider does not expect the tower stocks to move significantly, as CapEx guidance was consistent with prior commentary.

T-Mobile reported revenue of $20.89 billion, just above Schneider’s estimate of $20.78 billion and above the Street (VA) at $20.64 billion, with an upside in equipment revenue.

Postpaid phone net additions came in at +495k, which is just above Schneider’s estimate of +486k but below the Street estimate of +499k. Meanwhile, high-speed internet net additions of +424k were above the analyst estimate of +399k and the Street estimate of +396k.

T-Mobile updated guidance for 2025. Postpaid net customer addition guidance remains 5.5-6.0 million (5.5-6.0 million prior), versus the analyst estimate of 6.03 million and the Street at 5.87 million.

TMUS Price Action: T-Mobile US stock is down 11% to $233.10 at last check Friday.

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