Can FedEx Deliver? Q4 Earnings Test Turnaround Hopes - FedEx (NYSE:FDX)

Logistics and transportation giant FedEx Corporation FDX could provide a snapshot of the sector’s performance when it reports fourth-quarter financial results after the market closes on Tuesday.

Here's a look at the earnings estimates, what experts are saying ahead of the report, and key items to watch.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect FedEx to report fourth-quarter revenue of $21.84 billion, down from $22.1 billion in last year's fourth quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in two straight quarters, while missing estimates in seven of the last 10 quarters overall.

Analysts expect FedEx to report fourth-quarter earnings per share of $5.87, up from $5.41 in last year's fourth quarter. The company has missed analyst estimates for earnings per share in three straight quarters, while beating estimates in six of the last 10 quarters overall.

What Experts Are Saying: Investors are closely watching FedEx, which previously missed EPS estimates and provided weak guidance.

"The combination of the earnings shortfall and downgraded guidance spooked investors, dragging shares down over 10% in the days following the release," Freedom Capital Markets Chief Global Strategist Jay Woods said in a weekly newsletter.

Woods said the loss of a USPS contract contributed to weakened demand and the slashed full-year outlook. Shares also fell after April 2, with concerns on tariffs impacting global shipping volumes.

"The company continues to take steps via cost cuts and segment spinoffs to streamline and turn the stock around. How quickly they execute on this plan and any positive forward guidance will be critical to drive any sustained rebound."

Woods cautions on investors trying to time the stock's moves after earnings with an average post-earnings move of +/- 5.6%.

"Playing this stock into earnings has been a fool's game. Wait for the dust to settle."

FedEx’s cost initiatives led Bank of America Securities analyst Ken Hoexter to reiterate a Buy rating on the stock ahead of earnings last month. Hoexter lowered the price target on the stock from $272 to $270.

Hoexter was positive about the company's progress on its cost initiative. However, he’s cautious about B2B volumes and the impact of tariffs.

Key Items to Watch: FedEx has seen a shift in its financial results. It recently posted several consecutive revenue beats after missing estimates in seven of the prior 10 quarters. The company struggles on earnings, missing EPS estimates in recent quarters despite beating six out of the last 10 overall.

A double beat could provide investors with optimism. The company has struggled to meet or beat estimates for both figures in recent quarters.

United Parcel Service UPS, a FedEx rival, posted mixed results. It beat analyst estimates for earnings per share in six of the last 10 quarters, while missing revenue estimates in nine of the last quarters.

UPS will report second-quarter financial results in late July, with FedEx's report serving as a potential catalyst for UPS shareholders on what's to come.

More important for investors and analysts will be an update on guidance going forward. The company previously said it expected 2025 revenue to be flat or slightly down year-over-year after a previous guidance of being flat.

The company may choose not to provide forward guidance, which could also decrease shares.

One potential positive for the company could be providing more commentary on a recent partnership with Amazon.com Inc AMZN. FedEx will provide shipping help for Amazon on some package deliveries, including in rural areas.

This partnership comes after a large deal between the two companies previously ended. UPS scaled back its relationship with Amazon.

Price Action: FedEx stock is up 0.7% to $226.20 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $194.30 to $313.84. FedEx stock is down 17.5% year-to-date and down 11.8% over the last year.

UPS has also seen its stock price fall. Shares are down 19.9% year-to-date in 2025 and down 28.4% over the last year.

Read Next: