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Dollar General and Dollar Tree to Open Near 52-Week Highs

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ETF Trivia Answers

MY E G SERVICES BERHAD by My E G Services Berhad

Yesterday, the day that the 99 Cents Only Stores (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ndn#NYSE">NDN</a>) agree to be taken private, competitor discount variety stores Dollar General (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dg#NYSE">DG</a>) and Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dltr#NASDAQ">DLTR</a>) reached new 52-week highs of $39.40 and $80.99 per share, respectively.

Dollar General boosted its sales forecast and its shares were purchased by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/brk-a#NYSE">BRK-A</a>) in the second quarter. The company also launched an e-commerce site this summer. The Goodlettsville, Tenn.-based retailer has about 9,500 stores in 35 states offering such things as prepackaged foods, seasonal items and personal care items. Founded in 1939, Dollar General now has a market cap of $13.1 billion.

The price-to-earnings ratio is higher than the industry average, but so is its operating margin. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 16.5%. Twelve of 18 analysts consider it a Buy of Strong Buy; none rate it a Sell. The share price is almost 23% higher than six months ago. The stock has outperformed competitors Family Dollar (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fdo#NYSE">FDO</a>) and Walmart (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/wmt#NYSE">WMT</a>) over that time.

Dollar Tree's board recently approved a plan to repurchase $1.5 billion of its common shares. Revenue is projected to grow more than 10% in the current quarter and nearly 12% for the full year. Chesapeake, Va.-based Dollar Tree operates more than 4,000 stores under various banners throughout the U.S. and in Canada. Its market cap is $9.6 billion. It was founded in 1986.

Earnings per share are anticipated to grow 17.3% over the next five years and the return on equity is 30.4%. Its operating margin is also higher than the industry average. Eleven of 19 analysts rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy. The share price is more than 43% higher than six months ago. Over that time, the stock has also outperformed Dollar General and the 99 Cents Only Stores.

Action Items: 

Bullish: Traders interested in exchange traded funds holding Dollar Tree might want to consider the following trades:

<ul><li>iShares S&amp;P MidCap 400 Growth Index (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ijk#NYSE">IJK</a>): up more than 11% in the past week</li>
<li>iShares S&amp;P MidCap 400 Index (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ijh#NYSE">IJH</a>): up more than 11% in the past week </li>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P MidCap 400 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/mdy#NYSE">MDY</a>): up more than 11% in the past week</li>
</ul>

Bearish: Or traders might want to consider this alternative position:

<ul><li>ProShares Short MidCap400 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/myy#NYSE">MYY</a>): up more than 12% in the past quarter</li>
</ul>

Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.

Guess? (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ges#NYSE">GES</a>) is scheduled to report second-quarter fiscal 2012 results later today, after the markets close. Investors will be watching to see whether expansion in Europe and Asia will again offset domestic weakness and provide another positive earnings surprise, as it did in the first quarter.

Analysts are looking for the apparel maker to report earnings of $0.81 per share, which is an increase over $0.72 in the same period of last year. That EPS estimate has crept up from $0.79 per share 90 days ago. And note that analysts have underestimated the company's per-share earnings in every quarter going back to 2008.

The analysts' forecast also calls for the company to post revenues of $656.4 million, which would be 13.7% higher than a year ago. Looking ahead to the current quarter, analysts so far are looking for sequential and year-over-year growth of both revenues and per-share earnings. And the forecast for the full year so far calls for revenues up 12.1% year over year and EPS 8.1% higher.

The Company

Los Angeles-based Guess? designs, markets and licenses lifestyle collections of apparel and accessories for men, women and children. Offerings include jeans, skirts, dresses and jackets, while licensed products include eyewear, watches, handbags and swimwear. It operates more than 400 stores in the U.S. and Canada, as well as more than 30 in Europe. The company also sells its products through wholesale, e-commerce and licensing distribution channels. The company was founded in 1981 and now has a market cap of $2.9 billion.

During the three months that ended in July, the company announced that founder and chairman Maurice Marciano would step down as an executive officer, and also announced that it had secured a new five-year $200 million revolving credit facility.

Performance

The company has a long-term earnings per share growth forecast of 13.9%, a return of equity of 25.6% and a dividend yield of 2.5%. Its 11.0 P/E ratio and 0.8 PEG ratio are less than the industry averages. The company keeps more than enough cash on hand to cover its long-term debts. Nine of 15 analysts rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy, while none rate it a Sell.

Shares recently hit a 52-week low of $30.21 and the share price is now more than 32% lower than six months ago. The stock has underperformed competitors such as Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/rl#NYSE">RL</a>) and True Religion Apparel (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/trlg#NASDAQ">TRLG</a>), as well as the broader markets, year to date.

Action Items:

Bullish: Traders interested in exchange traded funds invested in Guess? might want to consider the following trades:

<ul><li>Rydex S&amp;P Midcap 400 Pure Growth (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/rfg#NYSE">RFG</a>): up more than 28% in the past year</li>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P MidCap 400 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/mdy#NYSE">MDY</a>): up more than 15% in the past year</li>
<li>iShares S&amp;P MidCap 400 Index (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ijh#NYSE">IJH</a>): up more than 15% in the past year</li>
</ul>

Bearish: Traders may want to consider these alternative positions:

<ul><li>ProShares UltraPro Short MidCap400 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/smdd#NYSE">SMDD</a>): up more than 46% in the past month</li>
<li>Direxion Daily Mid Cap Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/mwn#NYSE">MWN</a>): up more than 45% in the past month</li>
<li>ProShares Short MidCap400 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/myy#NYSE">MYY</a>): up more than 17% in the past month
</li></ul>

Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.

Yesterday, I posted my <a href="http://investwithanedge.com/etf-trivia" target="_blank">ETF Trivia questions</a>. Today, I provide the answers.
1. What was the second ETF (exchange-traded fund) launched?
Correct answer is b) SPDR S&amp;P Midcap (MDY), which was launched in May 1995, about 27 months after the first ETF. Dow Diamonds did not arrive until January 1998, and the “Cubes” did not launch until March 1999. (Disclosure: I am long QQQQ).
2. In what year was the second ETF launched?
Correct answer is b) 1995 (see explanation above). There were no new ETFs introduced in 1994.
3. How many US listed ETFs and ETNs were there at the beginning of the new millennium (1/1/2000)?
Correct answer is a) 32. Although the ETF business began in 1993, it didn’t start to hit its stride until this decade. The 132nd ETF was launched in November 2002, and it took until December 2005 for the count to reach 232. (Note: these last two numbers are not adjusted for ETF closures that happened prior to those dates.)
4. When was the first bond ETF launched?
Correct answer is a) July 2002, which was the launch of three treasury and one corporate bond funds from iShares: SHY, IEF, TLT, and LQD. November 2002 was the launch of the now defunct FITR family of treasury ETFs.
5. What was the brand name of the first family of ETFs with an international focus?
The correct answer is c) WEBS – World Equity Benchmark Series. This family launched 17 single-country ETFs in March 1996, making them the 3rd- 19th ETFs to arrive on the scene. You now know them as iShares MSCI Australia (EWA), iShares MSCI Canada (EWC), and 15 more with ticker symbols starting with the letters “EW”. The BLDRS international ETFs did not launch until November 2002.
At the time of the WEBS launch, 100% of the ETF products were named either SPDRS or WEBS, so I went and grabbed the <a href="http://www.spdrwebs.com/" target="_blank">SPDRWEBS</a> domain name (which I still own today if anyone is interested in acquiring it).
6. When was the first ETN (exchange-traded note) launched?
Correct answer is c) 2006, making ETNs a relatively young product. The first two were iPath DJ-UBS Commodity Total Return ETN (DJP) and iPath S&amp;P GSCI Total Return Index ETN (GSP), launched in November 2006.
7. When were the first leveraged and inverse ETFs launched?
The correct answer is b) June 2006 with the introduction of the first seven ProShares: Ultra Dow30 (DDM), Short Dow30 (DOG), Ultra MidCap400 (MVV), Short MidCap400 (MYY), Short QQQ (PSQ), Short S&amp;P 500 (SH), and Ultra S&amp;P 500 (SSO). The first leveraged “mutual fund” came 13 years earlier with <a href="http://investwithanedge.com/insincere-concern-the-banning-of-leveraged-etfs" target="_blank">the launch of Rydex Nova</a> (RYNVX) in July 1993.
8. How much time elapsed between the initial filing of the first leveraged ETF and its launch?
Correct answer is c) ~4 years. The ProShares (under the name ProFunds) <a href="http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1174610/000095016902000176/0000950169-02-000176.txt" target="_blank">original filing</a> is dated June 5, 2002. This is one of the reasons that I do not pay much attention to new ETF filings. Another reason is that many of those filings never result on actual products being launched.
9. When was the first ETF delisting?
Correct answer is c) December 2002 when the first three ETFs bit the dust. Most of you probably don’t remember iShares DJ US Chemicals (former ticker IYD), iShares DJ US Internet (former ticker IYV), and iShares S&amp;P/TSE 60 (former ticker IKC). Thus, the need <a href="http://investwithanedge.com/category/etf-deathwatch" target="_blank">for ETF Deathwatch</a> was born.
10. What was the age of the “youngest” ETF to delist?
Correct answer is a) Less than 3 months, and NETS FTSE-CNBC Global 300 Index Fund (former ticker MYG) holds that honor. Launched 11/13/08, it was part of the <a href="http://investwithanedge.com/first-wave-of-etf-closures-for-2009" target="_blank">massive NETS closure </a>on February 9, 2009. The answer c) 3 years, 8 months, was the age of <a href="http://investwithanedge.com/powershares-to-close-19-etfs" target="_blank">PowerShares High Growth Rate Dividend Achievers Portfolio</a> (former ticker PHJ), the oldest ETF to ever meet its demise.
11. When was the 1,000th ETP (ETFs and ETNs combined) launched?
Correct answer is b) November 2009, and was highlighted in an <a href="http://investwithanedge.com/1000th-etf-hits-the-tape" target="_blank">article</a> earlier this month.
12. Which of the following ETF brands are defunct?
Correct answer is n) All of the above:
<ul>
<li>WEBS are now known as iShares.</li>
<li>The streetTRACKS brand was dropped in favor of SPDRS.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.thefreelibrary.com/ETF+Advisors+Announces+Liquidation+Distribution+for+its+Four+Treasury+...-a0102501830" target="_blank">FITR</a> Treasury ETFs arrived on the scene in November 2002 and left May 2005.</li>
<li>HealthShares bit the dust in 2008, shortly after the <a href="http://investwithanedge.com/etf-deathwatch" target="_blank">inaugural issue of ETF Deathwatch</a>.</li>
<li><a href="http://investwithanedge.com/aso-delisting" target="_blank">AirShares</a>, brought to you by the same people behind HealthShares, lasted almost eight months.</li>
<li>The <a href="http://investwithanedge.com/first-wave-of-etf-closures-for-2009" target="_blank">NETS family</a> of international index ETFs met their untimely demise early in 2009.</li>
<li>Ameristock Ryan ETFs appeared in July 2007 and disappeared in June 2008.</li>
<li>Adelante Real Estate ETFs were the first group of ETFs from the HealthShares/AirShares people to go under in July 2008.</li>
<li>Opta was the brand name of the Lehman Brothers ETNs that blew up when Lehman declared bankruptcy. Many holders did not understand what <a href="http://investwithanedge.com/etns-riskier-than-they-look" target="_blank">ETNs</a> were or the fact that <a href="http://investwithanedge.com/open-letter-to-etn-sponsors" target="_blank">they are unsecured</a>.</li>
<li>FocusShares had four ETFs for about 11 months but closed up shop in October 2008.</li>
<li><a href="http://investwithanedge.com/spa-announces-closure-of-six-etfs" target="_blank">SPA MarketGrader</a> ETFs met their demise in March 2009.</li>
<li><a href="http://investwithanedge.com/shareholders-left-hanging-with-bsr-delisting" target="_blank">BearLinx was the brand of Bear Stearns</a> (remember that company?) that sponsored ETNs.</li>
<li>Fortune was one of the early ETF brands on the scene. Fortune e-50 (former ticker FEF) arrived in October 2000 and closed in December 2003. Another product, the Fortune 500 ETF (former ticker FFF) was renamed streetTRACKS Total Market ETF (TMW) on 6/13/05 only to be renamed again to SPDR DJ Total Market (TMW), thus becoming the first ETF to survive two brand eliminations.</li>
</ul>
How well did you do?
<img src="http://investwithanedge.com/?ak_action=api_record_view&amp;id=7123&amp;type=feed" alt="" />

Now, I love Doug Kass, but I don't like his market call today. Doug Kass, hedge fund manager of Seabreeze Partners, and one of my favorite market prognosticators expects the market to take a dive today.
He said part of his reason for thinking the market will fall is because of the plunging VIX, which Kass says is a sign of a buying panic.
I don't usually disagree with handsome Doug Kass, but today, I think the market holds its support and finishes in the green.
Currently, the Dow is up 89, the S&amp;P is up 9.3 and the Nasdaq is up 17.
The VIX is down 3% to $24.41.
Now, I heart Doug Kass, but I don't like his market call today. Doug Kass, hedge fund manager of Seabreeze Partners, and one of my favorite market prognosticators expects the market to take a dive today.
He said part of his reason for thinking the market will fall is because of the plunging VIX, which Kass says is a sign of a buying panic.
I don't usually disagree with handsome Doug Kass, but today, I think the market holds its support and finishes in the green.
Currently, the Dow is up 89, the S&amp;P is up 9.3 and the Nasdaq is up 17.
The VIX is down 3% to $24.41.
If you agree with Kass that the market will fall then here are some ETFs you could buy that are inverse ETFs and short the market.
<ul>
<li><a href="/stock/etf">ETF</a> Name	 Ticker	
</li><li>Short QQQ (NYSE: PSQ)
</li><li>Short Dow 30 (NYSE: <a href="/stock/dog">DOG</a>)
</li><li>Short S&amp;P 500 (NYSE: <a href="/stock/s">SH</a>)
</li><li>Short MidCap400(NYSE: <a href="/stock/myy">MYY</a>)
</li><li>Ultra Short QQQ	 (NYSE: <a href="/stock/qid">QID</a>)
</li><li>Ultra Short Dow 30 (NYSE: <a href="/stock/dxd">DXD</a>)
</li><li>Ultra Short S&amp;P 500 (NYSE: <a href="/stock/s">SDS</a>)</li></ul>

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