The Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone 7 cycle may end up being softer than investors had hoped, and potential production cuts would certainly be bad news for iPhone suppliers. However, according to Pacific Crest analyst John Vinh, fears surrounding further production cuts are already priced into Apple’s suppliers.
“While further production cuts would result in downside to our estimates, we believe risk/reward appears favorable, as Apple (AAPL) and its component suppliers are largely trading at the lower end of historical ranges with many stocks near trough levels,” Vinh explained.
Pacific Crest conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine which Apple supplier stocks would be most sensitive to further iPhone 7 cuts and which would be most insulated.
Vinh found that Apple itself, along with ARM Holdings plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: ARMH), InvenSense Inc (NYSE: INVN) and Qorvo Inc (NASDAQ: QRVO), are the safest plays.
On the other hand, Pacific Crest determined that Synaptics, Incorporated (NASDAQ: SYNA), Cirrus Logic, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRUS), Skyworks Solutions Inc (NASDAQ: SWKS) and QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) are the suppliers with the most direct exposure to iPhone production.
Despite their varying degrees of exposure to the iPhone 7 cycle, Pacific Crest maintains Overweight ratings on Apple, Broadcom Ltd (NASDAQ: AVGO), Cirrus, QUALCOMM and Skyworks.
Disclosure: The author holds no position in the stocks mentioned.
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