Zinger Key Points
- Chugai’s GYM329 may offset muscle loss linked to obesity drugs like orforglipron.
- Orforglipron’s success lifted Chugai’s stock, now ranked 11th by market cap in Tokyo.
- 3 Summer "Power Patterns" Are About to Trigger (One With 90% Win Rate) - Get The Details Now
Chugai Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. CHGCY believes its anti-muscle-wasting drug could be used alongside Eli Lilly And Co.’s LLY oral obesity pill, orforglipron.
Roche Holdings AG RHHBY is a major shareholder of Chugai, a Japanese pharmaceutical company. The company’s optimism stems from growing evidence that modern weight-loss drugs can lead to significant muscle loss, an issue Chugai thinks it can help address.
Hitoshi Iikura, a senior executive at Chugai, told the Financial Times the company has “high expectations” for combining GYM329, initially developed for spinal muscular atrophy (SMA), with orforglipron or similar therapies.
Orforglipron, which Lilly licensed from Chugai, showed strong late-stage trial results, matching the safety and efficacy of popular injectables like Novo Nordisk A/S’ NVO Wegovy and Ozempic and Lilly’s Zepbound and Mounjaro.
The drug significantly reduced weight and blood sugar levels and is expected to hit the market next year.
Chugai began developing orforglipron in 2003 as part of an effort to enhance diabetes treatments, aiming to make them longer-acting and tablet-based. Although obesity wasn’t an initial target, the company saw broader potential as research evolved. “We didn’t anticipate it but it’s ballooning,” Iikura said, referring to the unexpectedly large obesity market.
Studies suggest that 25% to 39% of weight loss from obesity drugs may be due to lean mass reduction, which includes muscle. Chugai argues that maintaining muscle mass is vital, especially for aging populations, and its GYM329 drug could be a key component in preventing this loss during weight-loss treatment.
Despite Chugai’s success, Roche had previously passed on orforglipron due to setbacks with an earlier weight-loss drug. At the time, much of the pharmaceutical industry was hesitant to enter the obesity space, except companies like Lilly and Novo Nordisk with strong metabolic disease portfolios.
However, with market interest and scientific breakthroughs accelerating, Roche reversed course in 2023 and reentered the field.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Eli Lilly saw a 60% jump in sales of its weight-loss and diabetes drug Mounjaro in India in May compared to April, marking its second full month on the Indian market.
India has the third-largest obese population in the world.
According to market research firm Pharmarack Technologies, the U.S. drugmaker made 126 million rupees ($1.5 million) from Mounjaro injections last month.
Sales of the 5 mg dose more than doubled to 75 million rupees, while the 2.5 mg version brought in 51 million rupees.
According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), there are 101 million people with diabetes in India. Of these, at least 40 million are on medication.
Vishal Manchanda, SVP of institutional research at Systematix Group, told Livemint that even if 0.5% of 40 million use Mounjaro, it would fetch Eli Lilly sales of $1.5 billion annually.
Novo Nordisk is also trying to move up the launch of Wegovy in India to better compete with Lilly.
Price Action: LLY stock closed up 0.55% at $769.88 on Friday.
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